What Georgians Want

But what is clear from Gallup Poll surveys is that many Georgians value the opposite political ties as those Western-minded Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili desires. Specifically, 41% of Georgians surveyed before the recent conflict between the two countries find their country’s relationship with Russia to be more important than their relationship with the United States. ~Gallup

Via Yglesias

Note that this survey was completed before the war in August.  It is the rational, self-interested response of Georgians to want to cultivate good relations with Moscow.  The confontational, pro-U.S., anti-Russian line that Saakashvili maintains is now supported by just 11% of the population.  There is clearly no public consensus that would back incorporation into NATO when NATO membership necessarily means pursuing a pro-U.S. stance at expense of good relations with Russia.  “Pro-Russian” sentiment is likely to grow from the postwar recognition that poor relations with Moscow cost Georgia a lot and American support benefits them very little.

The good news is that there is no rational reason why good Russian-Georgian relations should lead to worse U.S.-Georgian relations, and the only reason at all why rapprochment between Moscow and Tbilisi would harm our relations with Georgia is if we insist that Saakashvili’s hold on power is some non-negotiable, sacred principle.  If we were willing to acknowledge that a “pro-Russian” Georgian leader is not necessarily hostile to our interests, because we have no vital interests in the Caucasus anyway, that would help considerably.  A Georgian government that pursued the just interests of Georgia first could maintain friendly relations with Washington without becoming adversarial against Russia.  Unfortunately, that lesson was not learned before reconciliation between Tbilisi and the separatist regions became absolutely impossible, which means that any future Georgian government will be compelled in the end to abandon territories that it considers, with reason, rightfully theirs.

Update: On bloggingheads, Chris Preble and Heather Hurlburt discuss NATO expansion, Georgia and the moral hazard of extending security guarantees.