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What Does Blame Have To Do With Probabilities?

The experts cited in his story think that professional women are more likely to get divorced, to cheat and to be grumpy about either having kids or not having them. But rather than rush to blame the woman, let’s not overlook the other key variable: What is the guy doing? ~Elizabeth Corcoran, Forbes What?  Rush […]

The experts cited in his story think that professional women are more likely to get divorced, to cheat and to be grumpy about either having kids or not having them. But rather than rush to blame the woman, let’s not overlook the other key variable: What is the guy doing? ~Elizabeth Corcoran, Forbes

What?  Rush to blame the woman?  Good grief.  Why is it that no one can ever make observations about statistical trends without someone else feeling oppressed by these observations?  Young men might resent having it pointed out to them that, on average, they engage in riskier and more reckless behaviour than almost every other demographic and consequently must often pay higher insurance premiums.  Naturally, the young men who are not particularly reckless will find this annoying, but it is eminently logical that the rates should be what they are.  You don’t hear a lot of complaints about how we shouldn’t rush to “blame the young men.”  We’re talking about compilations of data.  The statistical analysis is not making accusations or laying blame.  They represent trends based in the study of the real world, where it is more likely that marriage to career women will be a less happy and less stable arrangement than others.  We’re talking about probabilities, not iron laws that apply in every case.  Who can say that in all or even most of these cases the career woman is the one to bear most of the blame?  Indeed, where has this language of blame and guilt come from?  It wasn’t in the original article.  Its introduction in the rebuttal is a tactic to make the author of the original piece–and those who took his report seriously–feel like a heel for attacking the poor, defenseless career women.  This is not a real argument. 

The rest of the rebuttal is, near as I can tell, a dedicated effort to ignore most of the significant claims of the article and show all the ways that marrying career women can be “exciting”!  Yes, well, divorce and unhappy marriages can be their own kind of excitement, I suppose.  And it should be said that men who govern their choices in life by careful statistical risk assessment are usually considered rather odd (for a pop culture example, see Ben Stiller in Along Came Polly), but that is no reason to shoot the messenger when he brings you information about the potential risks of choice A rather than choice B.

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