West Virginia

As I discussed last week, Obama is not faring well in West Virginia and Kentucky, and the new Rasmussen West Virginia poll shows that he has gained no ground in the last six weeks.  Trailing Clinton 56-27 overall, he loses all age groups and all income groups.  20% of black voters support Clinton, a figure that seems to be finding a parallel in some of the surveys of North Carolina and which have elsewhere been routinely dismissed as incredible.  He loses among men by 21 and among women by 36.  His unfavs are at 50% (remember that this is a closed primary), and even among those who say Iraq is the most important issue he trails by four.  As in the March poll, 40% say they are unlikely to vote for Obama against McCain.

57% of likely voters in the West Virginia primary say that they think it likely that Obama shares some of Wright’s views.  61% say that he denounced Wright out of political convenience.  17% remain unsure which candidate they will support, but it is not hard to imagine most of them breaking for Clinton and giving her a 40+ point win.  Tomorrow may or may not go well for Obama, but next week is going to be a horror show.