At meetings of conservative activists and think tankers I’ve attended over the past few days, a theme of dogged overconfidence about the November balloting was in evidence. Despite the media’s Foley fixation and the sea of blue-tinted margins visible in most polling summaries, many activist Republicans I talked to (only a subset of conservative activists, of course) continue to believe that the GOP is going to outperform expectations and maintain control of both chambers. Some otherwise-reasonable conservatives of my acquaintance, including nationally known political journalists, insist that contests such as the Maryland Senate race and Colorado governor’s race remain in play. Many have internalized the Left’s unhinged fascination with Karl Rove’s genius and expect him to pull some kind of magic trick towards the end of October to deflect the current momentum of the election cycle. 

Basically, I see a lot of people drinking Kool-Aid. It is red. But it has no flavor and no nutritional value. ~John Hood

This is good news for the Dems.  The one thing the GOP had going for it was its awareness of how bad this election could be if they didn’t make special efforts to mobilise their voters and operate their turnout machine at high capacity.  If there is a sense that things are going to magically turn around or that things are much better than they seem, the GOP will fail to do what is necessary to stave off a bad defeat and may end up suffering an even worse one.

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