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Turning Syria Into the New Burma

Dov Zakheim calls for greater U.S. isolation of Syria: Washington should step out smartly and call for his exit, withdraw its ambassador, choke off all remaining direct, indirect and, to the extent possible, third-party financial and commercial dealings with the Syrian regime and push to have Assad declared a criminal. If it’s good enough policy […]

Dov Zakheim calls for greater U.S. isolation of Syria:

Washington should step out smartly and call for his exit, withdraw its ambassador, choke off all remaining direct, indirect and, to the extent possible, third-party financial and commercial dealings with the Syrian regime and push to have Assad declared a criminal. If it’s good enough policy toward the Libyan dictator, it’s certainly good enough for his Syrian counterpart.

In retrospect, several of these were mistakes when applied to the Libyan crisis, and some are coming back to haunt the Western governments that pressed for them. Having Gaddafi declared a criminal by the ICC may be the biggest mistake of them all, as it has made it that much harder to reach a negotiated settlement now that armed intervention is underway. Indicting Assad will have the same effect. No one, least of all Zakheim, proposes that the U.S. and its allies repeat the error of intervening militarily. If Assad and his closest allies “have to go,” as Zakheim says, declaring him a criminal makes it that much less likely that he will voluntarily go under any circumstances. Choking off third-party financial and commercial dealings with the regime will harm the regime, but they will also have an adverse effect on the entire Syrian economy. The regime may be reduced to a pariah on par with North Korea or Burma, but the regime may remain in place and the people aren’t going to be better off as a result. If the Burmese experience is any indication of what will happen, the results will be quite the opposite of what is intended. As Nader Mousavizadeh observed last year:

The two-decade-old policy of isolating Burma now looks like a carefully constructed attempt to weaken Western influence and open the door to China, while devastating Burma’s legitimate economy and doing nothing to improve its people’s human rights.

Mousavizadeh went on:

This is not to say that the sanctions haven’t had an impact—only that they have been entirely counterproductive. In a series of recent conversations with civil-society leaders, businessmen, and foreign diplomats in Rangoon, a grim picture emerged: a middle class decimated and forced into exile; an educational system entirely unable to develop the country’s human capital; a private sector hollowed out, with only the junta’s cronies able to profit from trade in the country’s natural resources.

It is undoubtedly very satisfying to say that Assad “has to go,” but unless we have some realistic expectation that any of the measures being proposed here will hasten that outcome it is idle to make recommendations that might do nothing more than entrench the existing regime and immiserate the population.

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