Trump Wins New York By a Mile
Donald Trump won his home state of New York as expected by a very wide margin. With 66% reporting, Trump had just under 60% of the vote with Kasich at 25% and Cruz at 15%. New York allocates its delegates mostly by Congressional district, but both the districts and the at-large delegates have a 50% winner-take-all trigger. Trump’s victory was so large across the entire state that he is on track to win all but a handful of the state’s 95 delegates. Of course, any remotely competitive candidate for the nomination should at least be able to win his own state, and that goes double for a front-runner, but Trump’s win was impressive all the same and an important step towards securing the nomination.
According to CNN’s exit polls, Trump did best with men (leading Kasich 63-23%), voters over 45 (65-23%), non-college graduates (66-18%), and $100K+ earners (64-26%). In a bit of a reversal from Trump’s usual support from different ideological groups, he was weakest with moderate Republicans (47% to Kasich’s 41%) but did very well with both very (62%) and somewhat conservative (68%) voters. Conservatives overall made up 71% of the electorate, and two-thirds supported him.
Unsurprisingly, Trump had his best results in and around New York City, but there was no region of the state where either of his opponents came within 20 points. There was late movement towards Kasich, who received 40% among the quarter of voters that decided in the last week, but Trump led with late-deciders. One can only imagine how much larger Trump’s margin of victory would have been if Kasich were no longer in the race.