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Trump Is on Track to Win Again

Today’s elections promise to deliver more bad news for anti-Trump Republicans. Trump enjoys significant leads in both Michigan [1] and Mississippi [2], which offer the largest delegate hauls today, and Trump may be poised to win in Idaho [3] as well. It’s possible Rubio could surprise with a good showing in Hawaii, but no one really knows what to expect there. There are also hints [4] that Trump may be able to win [5] Hawaii [6].

Delegate allocation for all four states is proportional. Michigan [7] and Mississippi [8] have a 15% threshold that could end up leaving Rubio with no delegates in either state. Idaho [9] has an even higher threshold at 20%, and has switched to having a primary instead of the caucus they had four years ago. Trump tends to fare better in primaries, and he has polling leads in all three of the primary states today.

Three more victories for Trump would solidify his status as front-runner, and sweeping all four states would be an embarrassment for his opponents. Even if he comes away with only Mississippi and Michigan wins, Trump will have demonstrated that he can prevail in very different parts of the country. It would also show that Trump keeps beating Kasich in blue states while also beating Cruz in most Southern states, and that bodes well for his chances next week in all of the March 15 contests. The other candidates will likely be fighting with each other for bragging rights about second-place finishes in different places. If there is a big surprise anywhere tonight, I assume it would be a win for Kasich in Michigan, but I don’t think it will happen.

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6 Comments To "Trump Is on Track to Win Again"

#1 Comment By grumpy realist On March 8, 2016 @ 5:34 pm

David Brooks is now plotting for a Garrison finish by Rubio to save all the Establishment Republicans.

#2 Comment By A Sad, Sad Day For The Republic (ha ha) On March 8, 2016 @ 7:15 pm

According to the New York Times today ( [10]), Trump tends to win states with large numbers of white racists, or, more precisely, whites who “fear a threat to their status in the racial pecking order.”

I thought bemusedly of MA, his largest winning margin to date, but the Times, while tersely admitting this was “mysterious”, also felt it was probably explained by the anti-busing sentiment in South Boston forty years ago – which settles the matter for me, of course, as it should for you.

Something to ponder as you monitor the huge numbers of apparent racists, crypto-Kluxers, and out-and-out Nazis turning out for Mr. Trump tonight. And whatever you do, don’t forget to feel alarmed!

#3 Comment By Dain On March 8, 2016 @ 9:15 pm

Trump’s winning with whites at large is proving to progressives that the war really is with whites in general, not simply those who identify as conservative. As the left increasingly eats its own – from insufficiently enthusiastic academics to Hollywood types – this shouldn’t be surprising to anyone.

Identity politics is a post-ideological space, and we’re moving quickly into it.

#4 Comment By On Target On March 8, 2016 @ 9:52 pm

“If there is a big surprise anywhere tonight, I assume it would be a win for Kasich in Michigan, but I don’t think it will happen.”

No surprises. At least not to readers of your column. Including the abysmal result for Rubio – 4th in MS and 4th in MI.

#5 Comment By Jeremy On March 8, 2016 @ 10:15 pm

That’s okay, though. Once he gets in the White House and breaks all of his promises to his supporters (and he WILL), I’ll be right there to say “told you so.”
But that’s if he doesn’t start World War III, of course.

#6 Comment By Car Guy On March 8, 2016 @ 10:23 pm

It’s heartening to see Sanders leading Clinton a merry chase in Michigan. She was ahead by double digits as recently as a day or so ago.

Here’s hoping he pulls it out.

It would a big loss for the worst Secretary of State in recent history, and a gratifying one for conservatives who love the Constitution and sympathize with those Sanders supporters who reject the despicable Clintons and want to restore law and order to Wall Street and in Washington.