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Trump and Republican Foreign Policy

The same people that have treated gut instinct and ideological conformity as the only things that really matter in foreign policy are now deservedly stuck with a loudmouth nationalist.
DC: Donald Trump And Ted Cruz Join Capitol Hill Rally Against Iran Deal

Contrary to the hopes of many party elites, the recent terrorist attacks in Europe and the Near East haven’t weakened Trump’s position in the nomination contest:

National Security ranks as the top issue for many Republican voters after this month’s terrorist attacks in Paris, Mali, Beirut and Egypt. But, to the dismay of the GOP establishment and more experienced candidates, the new foreign policy focus isn’t shuffling the standings in the party’s presidential primary.

The assumption that the attacks would drive voters toward more “experienced” candidates favored by party elites never made much sense. After all, virtually none of the candidates has any significant foreign policy experience, and in general the Republican primary electorate has been allergic to candidates that have substantial governing experience. There is no reason why an electorate hungry for “outsider” candidates would become more interested in conventional politicians because of a few terrorist attacks overseas. Insofar as Republican voters perceive the conventional politicians in the field to be part of a failed political class, high-profile events that further undermine their confidence in the political class can only benefit the candidates that are perceived to be most hostile to or separate from it.

The hope for Rubio, Bush, et al. has been that eventually voters would tire of the completely unprepared candidates that don’t know anything about policy, but as we have already seen for months Trump and Carson supporters don’t care that their candidates know little or nothing about policy. Now that the conversation has shifted to national security and foreign policy instead of immigration, that just gives the “outsider” candidates different subjects to use to their advantage. Trump’s blunt and heavy-handed nationalist rhetoric seems to appeal much more broadly among Republican voters than the dangerous proposals of the other hawkish candidates that want to get the U.S. mired ever more deeply in Syria’s civil war. More to the point, Trump’s lack of foreign policy experience doesn’t hurt him as much in a field in which most of his competitors have little or none of their own. When one of the supposedly most “experienced” candidates is a first-term senator with an exaggerated reputation for expertise, Trump’s unmistakable ignorance has been less of a liability than it likely would have been in decades past.

Meanwhile, Trump’s obnoxious and combative style probably serves him well when he’s trying to win over hawkish voters. The article quotes Tim Pawlenty making just this point:

“I don’t think these developments (terror attacks) hurt Trump in any way because his brashness will be equated with toughness. And for some voters that will be all they hear or all they want to know.”

It is fitting that party elites that have emphasized superficial shows of “toughness” and “resolve” as proof of foreign policy preparedness are now being beaten by a demagogic showman who outperforms their preferred candidates by routinely making such empty gestures to win votes. Having elevated ignorant and inexperienced candidates to be nominee in the recent past (e.g., Bush in 2000 and Romney in 2012), the GOP is ill-prepared to reject a candidate on account of his lack of knowledge or relevant experience. The same people that have treated gut instinct and ideological conformity as the only things that really matter in foreign policy are now deservedly stuck with a loudmouth nationalist who understands virtually nothing about the issues but worships “strength” above all else.

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