Michael Penfold describes the rise of a Venezuelan opposition figure, Henrique Capriles Radonski:

If he does win the primary, Capriles Randonski’s most valuable quality is that no one can accuse him of belonging to Venezuela’s political past. At 39, he is younger than Chávez. A lawyer by training, he built his political career within new regional parties. He has a track record of supporting social programs that are widely popular among their constituencies. Moreover, he has avoided explicitly criticizing Chávez’s ideological agenda. He understands that competing directly against Chávez’s popular social agenda is an unwinnable fight. So instead, he relies on credibly delivering political reconciliation, fighting crime, and promoting a more effective and less politicized perspective of social programs.

It shouldn’t matter very much to the U.S. who governs Venezuela, and it is far from certain that Chavez’s challenger can win. However, if Capriles Radonski could prevail and replace Chavez as president, it would be a huge blow to the ridiculous alarmism about Venezuela that has been building here in the U.S. If Venezuela’s president were a young lawyer aligned with the anti-Chavez opposition instead of the clownish “Bolivarian” revolutionary, Latin America hawks (unfortunately, such people exist) would have lost their chief hate-figure and the main excuse for a more aggressive U.S. approach to the region.

Unfortunately for the opposition, Chavez still has significant support in rural parts of the country, and Capriles Radonski and the opposition are primarily based in urban areas:

His strategy has already paid off in urban areas — no surprise, given that he was the governor of one of the largest and most urbanized Venezuelan states. But as he stands up to Chávez in the coming months, he faces a host of challenges. First, for all the support he enjoys in the cities, the opposition is almost nonexistent in rural states. If Chávez is able to win back some support in large cities, by doubling down on social programs there, for example, and if the opposition fails to penetrate rural states, MUD’s electoral effort will be doomed.

Chavez’s defeat would be a good development for Venezuela, whose economy and oil industry he has badly mismanaged, but we shouldn’t count on it. If Chavez is going to remain in power for at least a few more years, the U.S. would be better served to avoid exaggerating his influence and importance.