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The New Ryanmania Makes No More Sense Than the Old Ryanmania

Paul Gigot considers the possibility of Paul Ryan as Romney’s running mate: On the one hand, joining the ticket would make him even more of a national GOP figure. It’s hard if not impossible to run for president from the House, so the move makes sense if Mr. Ryan wants to be president. When the […]

Paul Gigot considers the possibility of Paul Ryan as Romney’s running mate:

On the one hand, joining the ticket would make him even more of a national GOP figure. It’s hard if not impossible to run for president from the House, so the move makes sense if Mr. Ryan wants to be president. When the presidential candidate loses, the veep nominee rarely gets the blame. Mr. Ryan would immediately become a leading contender for 2016.

Many of the arguments against choosing Rubio as VP also apply to Ryan. The most important objection to selecting Ryan is that he is just as unqualified to be next-in-line to the Presidency as Rubio, and perhaps more so. Ryan is not prepared to be President. This was true when Ryanmania was in full swing, and it’s still true now. It’s likely that a Vice President Ryan would never have to worry about assuming the office of the Presidency, but that isn’t the point. If selected, Ryan would be the first current member of the House to be nominated for Vice President by a major party since Geraldine Ferraro, and he would be the first current Republican member of the House selected as a running mate since William Miller in 1964. It wouldn’t be an unprecedented selection, but it is rare for tickets with a current House member as the VP nominee to win the election, and this is partly because it is rare for a major party nominee to select someone from the House for this position.

Politically, selecting Ryan would be a sop to conservative activists and pundits with no discernible advantage for the ticket in the general election. It would automatically identify Romney with Ryan’s budget plan, which would put conservative fears of the “Etch-a-Sketch” nominee to rest, but it would most likely be a liability in the fall. It seems unlikely that adding Ryan to the ticket would aid the GOP ticket in Wisconsin. Selecting Ryan might encourage Republican turnout, but it does little or nothing to repair Romney’s battered reputation with independents.

As the VP nominee, Ryan’s responsibility during the campaign would be to make most of the criticisms of Obama’s record, and at least on foreign policy he would have no credibility doing that. When the presidential nominee is already so weak on foreign policy (even though he thinks Obama is vulnerable on this subject), making Ryan Romney’s running mate would compound that weakness. Foreign policy is not going to decide the election, but as the challenger Romney and his running mate need to convey competence and understanding to make themselves appear as credible alternatives to the incumbents. Selecting Ryan as a running mate makes that more difficult rather than less.

Finally, making Ryan the VP nominee would most likely undermine his chances at a presidential nomination in the future. As ever, Ryan’s fans are his worst counselors. The only time that a past losing Republican VP nominee became the party’s presidential nominee later on was Bob Dole in 1996, which is hardly an inspiring example to imitate. More often, losing Republican VP nominees don’t launch presidential bids, and when they try they find little support for a presidential run. The one way for a Ryan VP nomination to advance Ryan’s political career is if Romney wins, and selecting Ryan as the VP nominee makes that outcome less likely.

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