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The Futility of Sanctions, Venezuelan Edition

The Miami Herald‘s editorial in favor of sanctions on Venezuela concludes with a revealing acknowledgment: No one should expect that sanctions will produce rapid changes [bold mine-DL]. But until now, only those courageous enough to raise their voices on behalf of democracy in Venezuela have felt any pain. It’s time for Mr. Maduro’s cronies to […]

The Miami Herald‘s editorial in favor of sanctions on Venezuela concludes with a revealing acknowledgment:

No one should expect that sanctions will produce rapid changes [bold mine-DL]. But until now, only those courageous enough to raise their voices on behalf of democracy in Venezuela have felt any pain. It’s time for Mr. Maduro’s cronies to get a taste of their own medicine.

It would be more accurate to say that no one should expect sanctions to produce any positive changes at all. As the editorial admits at the end, the goal of these sanctions is first and foremost to inflict pain on Venezuelan leaders and their allies. That may be satisfying for some constituencies and politicians here in the U.S., but what is it likely to accomplish in Venezuela? At best, it changes nothing except to inconvenience and annoy Venezuela’s current leadership. Any U.S. sanctions can and will be portrayed as outside meddling in Venezuelan politics, and given the mostly negative view of the U.S. government that prevails in Venezuela this can only benefit Maduro and his allies. Sanctions may hurt Maduro and his allies in some ways, but still end up working to their advantage politically.

Venezuelan opposition leaders have sent mixed signals about sanctions. On the one hand, some of them have approved of targeted sanctions because they deem these to be an internal U.S. issue, but have also rejected U.S. interference in Venezuela. I don’t blame them for trying to have things both ways, but it isn’t credible to think of imposing sanctions on foreign leaders and their associates as anything other than interference in that country’s affairs. If the U.S. imposes sanctions on Maduro and his cronies, it will be because it has decided that it should actively encourage one side in a foreign political dispute. That will most likely backfire and hurt the opposition forces that supporters of sanctions think they are helping.

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