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The Establishment’s Florida Problem

The Florida and Ohio primaries on March 15 will determine whether Trump will be able to win the nomination outright, and at least in Florida it appears that he isn’t going to be stopped. A new PPP survey [1] from Florida not only found that Trump is leading Rubio by 20 points (45-25%), but that he has surpassed Rubio’s favorability ratings in the state. Trump is now viewed favorably by 64% of Florida Republicans compared to Rubio’s 60%. Trump’s lead is consistent with what other recent Florida polls have found, and Trump’s lead in the RCP average [2] is 18 points. According to PPP, Rubio’s overall approval rating as senator has dropped to a dismal 31%, and disapproval has shot up to 55%. His approval ratings have gone down 10 points since September, and more Floridians want him to drop out of the race (44%) than want him to stay in (40%). It seems that neglecting to do his job and running a presidential campaign most Floridians didn’t want him to run have taken their toll.

Perhaps most remarkable of all is that Trump beats Rubio in a hypothetical one-on-one match-up 52-38%. For all the complaining about Kasich’s continued presence in the race from the senator’s fans, Rubio couldn’t win his home state against the front-runner even if all of the other candidates were out of the race. If the poll is correct, it wouldn’t even be close. Kasich may be able to beat Trump in Ohio even with the other candidates staying in. That’s the difference between being the popular governor of Ohio who has actually done something for his constituents, and an unpopular, no-show senator from Florida who has accomplished nothing for his. Naturally, many party leaders want to rally behind the latter, which is more evidence of the sort of judgment that got them into their current mess. It is fitting that the candidate so many anti-Trump Republicans have worked so hard to prop up and cheer on won’t be able to deliver his own state when it is absolutely necessary in order to thwart a Trump nomination.

13 Comments (Open | Close)

13 Comments To "The Establishment’s Florida Problem"

#1 Comment By Acilius On March 4, 2016 @ 9:46 am

Popular as Kasich is in Ohio, I don’t see him winning there if, as seems virtually certain, he goes into the primary having lost the first 26 contests.

#2 Comment By collin On March 4, 2016 @ 10:45 am

Does anybody find it scary the future of the Free World depends upon on Florida voters?

And worse yet for Florida is there are already 400,000 early ballots. (And that was a week ago)_

#3 Comment By R.S. Rogers On March 4, 2016 @ 11:04 am

That’s the difference between being the popular governor of Ohio who has actually done something for his constituents, and an unpopular, no-show senator from Florida who has accomplished nothing for his.

Nice theory, but no, not really. A freshman senator who’s accomplished nothing since taking office and who has missed an astounding percentage of Senate votes while running for president very much can win his home state. Ted Cruz just did so this very week. Being a no-show, do-nothing newbie senator who regards his office as a stepping-stone to the White House is not sufficient grounds to explain Rubio’s problems with Florida voters.

#4 Comment By JMG On March 4, 2016 @ 11:10 am

There are reports that GOP leaders are counting on a big negative ad blitz to take down Trump in Florida. After all, that’s how Jeb Bush won New Hampshire, right?

#5 Comment By Clint On March 4, 2016 @ 11:30 am

A Trump win in Florida reduces Rubio’s usefulness to the neoconservative big money donors, who are desperately attempting to stop Trump, who they worry that they can’t control.
Now, Rubio’s hit Trump low crude attacks to Cruz’s hit Trump high prosecutor act are going to be weighed against where Rubio drags away votes.
Apparently, Cruz’s big money neoconservative donors calculate that their own career lawyer/Politician would do better, if Cruz had the field without Rubio around.

#6 Comment By what’s going on On March 4, 2016 @ 1:38 pm

“A Trump win in Florida reduces Rubio’s usefulness to the neoconservative big money donors, who are desperately attempting to stop Trump”

If they were smart they’d let Trump stop Trump.

Last night he said some things that seemed almost calculated to lose core supporters. And I got the feeling that Cruz smelled it.

#7 Comment By Clint On March 4, 2016 @ 2:18 pm

If they were smart they’d let Trump stop Trump.
That was The Washington Establishment/Neooonservative Plan A and that blew up in their faces.

Now apparently, their Plan B: The Rubio Cruz High/Low Crude Attack/High Prosecutor Attack isn’t doin’ much better.

#8 Comment By support your local police On March 4, 2016 @ 6:34 pm

“That was The Washington Establishment/Neooonservative Plan A and that blew up in their faces.”

Any plans they make will blow up in their faces insofar as the plans are traceable to them.

But Trump is starting to say things that could undermine his support. If he backs off strict immigration enforcement and ending the H1-B program he loses me, that’s for sure. I don’t want to hear any more crap about the President or our military being above the law either.

That’s not just US Constitution 101, it’s in the marrow of every real American. What the hell is he thinking?

#9 Comment By Clint On March 4, 2016 @ 7:21 pm

But Trump is starting to say things that could undermine his support. If he backs off strict immigration enforcement and ending the H1-B program he loses me

Trump already has completely walked back what he said at the debate.

[3]

On the other hand, you, just as any American voter, are free to change your mind and vote or not vote for anyone or no one.

#10 Comment By Just Dropping By On March 5, 2016 @ 7:06 am

Cruz announced yesterday that he’s opening 10 new campaign offices in Florida: [4]

The only way that makes sense is if he’s decided that the only way forward is to try to kill Rubio’s campaign by throwing Florida to Trump and hoping Rubio drops out, since Cruz can’t possibly believe that he’ll make up the 30 point deficit between him and Trump in less than two weeks.

#11 Comment By Fred Bowman On March 5, 2016 @ 10:52 am

Being a “no-show, do-nothing newbie senator who regards his office as a steppingstone to the White House” worked for Obama, didn’t it? But then again what did America get out of it?

#12 Comment By Glaivester On March 5, 2016 @ 6:13 pm

Nice theory, but no, not really. A freshman senator who’s accomplished nothing since taking office and who has missed an astounding percentage of Senate votes while running for president very much can win his home state. Ted Cruz just did so this very week.

Ted Cruz managed to help kill the Gang of Eight bill, and helped stoke a confrontation in the Congress over Obamacare that helped lead to the 2014 massive GOP wins.

He was one of the “wackobirds” who protested our drone policy.

He may not have gotten legislation passed, but in terms of stopping bad legislation and taking stands which helped the GOP stake out ground against the Democrats, he has done far more in his 6 years than Rubio in his 4.

#13 Comment By Glaivester On March 5, 2016 @ 6:14 pm

Sorry, I meant Cruz has done more in his 4 years than Rubio has done in his 6.