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The Alleged Iranian Plot

Paul Pillar makes an important observation on the alleged Iranian plot: Another salient feature of the plot as detailed by the Justice Department is that it appears to have been designed with the intention of being discovered. This is related to the overall inept tradecraft but in particular to the sending of traceable quantities of […]

Paul Pillar makes an important observation on the alleged Iranian plot:

Another salient feature of the plot as detailed by the Justice Department is that it appears to have been designed with the intention of being discovered. This is related to the overall inept tradecraft but in particular to the sending of traceable quantities of money into the United States and the spilling of beans about supposed Iranian government involvement in open telephone calls to untrustworthy foreigners. If the plot was intended to be discovered, then presumably the motive of whoever concocted it was to escalate further the tension between Iran and the United States. A couple of possible instigators outside Iran come to mind; the most plausible ones inside Iran would be rogue elements. Whoever the instigator was, for the United States to respond by pressuring Iran more, and thus raising further the tension in the relationship, would be playing right into the intentions of whoever put the plot together.

There are a few other things to bear in mind. If the allegations are true, and if this was an attack authorized by the Iranian government, Iran hawks are in the odd position of focusing on a plot that undermines their usual over-hyping of the threat from Iran. After all, the case for a major “Iranian threat” isn’t just that the regime has hostile intentions, but that it has the capability to threaten the U.S. If true, the plot suggests that the threat from Iran to the United States is even less significant than skeptics previously thought it was. Note that it is the skeptics of the plot arguing that it doesn’t add up because everyone assumes the Quds Force is much more lethal and competent. Iran hawks are reduced to admitting that the threat from Iran is effectively smaller than the one skeptics of this plot are willing to acknowledge.

This should go without saying, but the plot has no implications for how we should think about Iran’s nuclear program or Iran’s status as a “rational actor” where nuclear weapons are concerned. If the plot is true, sponsoring an assassination of a representative of an avowedly hostile government on foreign soil would be provocative and reckless, but it tells us nothing about about Iran’s willingness to build, much less use, a nuclear weapon. Nothing has been revealed in the last week that makes taking military action against Iran or Iran’s nuclear facilities any less disastrous and unwise. Nothing that we have learned in the last week changes the reality that regime behavior becomes more moderate after a state acquires nuclear weapons. If there are elements inside Iran who would like to see U.S.-Iranian relations deteriorate further, that should make us think twice before giving Iranian hard-liners what they desire.

Pillar suggests that the administration’s response so far may be intended to guard against attacks from hawks here at home. If so, that could be dangerous:

However sympathetic one might be to the president’s reelection bid, the administration is playing a hazardous game. First, by offering up this kind of red meat, it risks enabling the meat eaters to push the administration into even more dangerous actions toward Iran. Second, it lowers further the possibilities of improving the relationship and reaching deals with Iran. This is especially so if the Iranian leadership was not involved in this plot, in which case that leadership would have good and understandable reasons to consider the United States to be a liar. Third, it risks a big embarrassment and loss of U.S. credibility if further evidence turns up showing that the Iranian leadership was not involved.

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