That ’70s Party

Democrats have opened up as much as a 15-point lead in party identification, a gap not seen since the Nixon-Ford days of the 1970s. ~Frank Donatelli

The opening of this gap has probably been the most significant change on the political scene taking place over the last couple of years.  Even in the absence of Democratic fundraising advantages thus far this cycle, this could have a devastating effect on Republicans in Congress in ’08.  As I said last month:

As Clausewitz might have said if he were a political blogger, “Voter identification is to fundraising as three to one.”

The gap is significant because it reflects the morale of party regulars and hints at future voting habits.  Obviously, the gap occurs and then widens when one side is energised and the other side is dispirited.  The latter needs a nominee that can inspire voters and generate tremendous enthusiasm.  The problem is that the political environment is so poor for the GOP that very few politicians are capable of generating enough enthusiasm to make up for this deficit in party ID.