Taking A Stand

As I asked about Tunisia before Ben Ali fled:

Is publicly taking sides intended to help the protesters, or mainly to take a self-satisfying, ineffective stand?

Obviously, as it turned out the Tunisian protesters were able to drive out Ben Ali on their own. We know that “taking sides” or “taking a stand” on their behalf publicly would not have achieved anything that the Tunisians couldn’t achieve on their own. When it comes to Egypt, my earlier objections to publicly taking the side of Tunisia’s protesters are even more relevant:

Declaring U.S. government support for protesting opponents of Ben Ali isn’t likely to lead to a peaceful resolution, but probably would lead to escalating tensions and more riots. Making Ben Ali’s removal from power the goal of U.S. policy (!) wouldn’t hasten internal reform, but would put the regime into an even greater panic and inspire an even harsher crackdown. It would also wreck a reasonably solid relationship with Tunisia for no discernible reason except that “we are in favor of democracy.”

Replace Ben Ali and Tunisia with Mubarak and Egypt, and the argument remains the same, except that in Egypt the U.S. has more reason to fear political upheaval because it has more at stake, and there is more reason to expect a brutal crackdown by Mubarak because of the presumed loyalty of the military. “Taking a stand” in support of Egyptian protesters might not be ineffective so much as it could be positively dangerous for them. After hearing declarations of support, protesters might expect the administration to intervene with or against Mubarak, and this could prompt the sort of uprising that Mubarak would feel compelled to put down with excessive force. Calls for Obama to “take a stand” are little more than demands that Obama set the Egyptian protesters up for a fall.

The administration should urge the Egyptian government to avoid violence, and it should be willing to withdraw aid if Mubarak uses excessive force against protesters, but publicly backing the protesters simply contributes to an escalating confrontation that cannot end well for the protesters or the U.S.-Egyptian relationship.