Strategic Folly Update

As I was saying earlier, refusal to provide humanitarian aid to Gazans will not only embitter the population against those withholding aid they could send but will present Hamas with the opportunity to maintain and improve on its position as the provider of services and supplies. Haaretz reports that Hamas is doing just that very aggressively. In fact, Hamas has been so aggressive that it is attacking U.N. warehouses to seize the goods inside so that they can be seen as the ones distributing them, which is very much like biting the hand that feeds them, but Hamas has every incentive to take advantage of the siege conditions in this way.

Meanwhile, the debate outside Gaza seems to be mostly about the different methods to be used in punishing the Gazan population to “educate” them, as Friedman might say, in the folly of supporting Hamas. It is not just that the Gazans are going to learn a very different lesson from their misery than the one Friedman, Inbar, et al. expect them to learn, but that when it comes to competing for the loyalties of the population Hamas is currently the only serious competitor in a position to act. Isolation, sieges and coercion do not undermine Hamas, as should be obvious by now. Naturally, then, Israelis are poised to vote into power a coalition made up of parties that do not understand this at all and either believe that current policy is succeeding or that it has failed because it has not been “tough” enough.