Inspired by the folks at Hotline, I thought I would have a shot at calling specific races for the House to see which ones make it into my expanded 35-seat pickup honour roll.  I had predicted only a 10-seat Dem majority (222-212) with a pickup of 19 after the Foley scandal broke, but it seems very likely to me that it will be larger than that after watching the trends over the past few weeks.

First, the easy ones: Democrats win in AZ-08, CO-07, TX-22, FL-16, OH-18, OH-15, WI-08, NC-11, NY-24, PA-10, IN-08, IN-02 and IN-09.  Dems all but guaranteed +13.

Then comes the much more competitive seats that will nonetheless be Dem-leaning seats: the Democrats win in NM-01, AZ-05, ID-01, IA-01, KY-03, MN-06, NH-02, OH-02, OH-01, PA-07, PA-06, KY-04, IL-06, FL-13, CT-02, CT-04, CT-05.  Dems very likely to get +30.

Then there are the outliers that seem harder to imagine, but which I am now thinking will fall to the Dems: NE-03, KS-02, NY-29, NY-26, NY-20.  Dems have reasonable chance of +35.

There is a lot of speculation about some of the California seats and AZ-01 flipping as well, but I just don’t see it.  There are even more wild-eyed predictions about OH-12, but I am not buying it.  So there you have it.  I will check in next week when we see how well or poorly my predictions turned out.