A new survey–albeit by a left-leaning polling firm–shows Democrat Scott Kleeb 6 points in front of Republican Adrian Smith after beginning the race 33 points down, according to the poll by Penn, Schoen & Berland of Washington, D.C.

It’s a shocking statistic for a district where Republicans outnumber Democrats by 2 to 1.

Jamie Karl, spokesperson for the Smith campaign, says the poll’s numbers are skewed but admits, “We’ve known the gap was closing for some time.” The news has spurred an about-face by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, which had previously extended little more than long-distance advice to the Kleeb campaign. Smelling victory within reach, the DCCC has surprised many political observers by devoting already stretched resources to the district to run TV ads for Kleeb, which began this week.

The wrangle in Nebraska mirrors surprisingly tight contests in other Republican strongholds in the western prairies and Rockies, such as the Wyoming at-large seat once occupied by Vice President Cheney and Idaho’s First Congressional District. In both races, polls show Republicans leading by razor-thin margins.

While many Republicans are suffering from a national mood that has soured because of the war in Iraq and a series of GOP-related scandals, Kleeb has gained traction by hammering Smith for his ties to Club for Growth, which advocates ending agricultural subsidies. Like many other Democrats running for office in conservative districts, Kleeb tacks to the right on lightning-rod social issues, such as abortion and gay marriage. ~U.S. News & World Report

If Bush is coming to Nebraska to help Smith, Smith must be in real trouble.  If Kleeb wins, which I now think is entirely likely, it won’t matter how big “the wave” is elsewhere.  The humiliation of losing a seat like NE-03 will be as strong a sign of repudiating the GOP as if they had lost fifteen seats in the Northeast, because it will mean that they were repudiated by their own traditional voters and not by energised Democrats and disenchanted moderated.