Reckless Ames Predictions II: The Reckoning

In the end, Romney got 31%, and I guessed he would get 30%, so I’m fairly pleased with the outcome and the prediction as far as that goes.  Huckabee and Brownback both fared better than I expected, racking up the results that I had assigned to Paul and Thompson.  I underestimated Tancredo and ignored poll numbers that suggested he would be a contender here, while I gave too much credit to chatter that Ron Paul might pull off a major coup and Tommy Thompson’s delusions of grandeur.  Thompson will soon be gone, and Hunter’s candidacy has ceased to have much rationale.  John McCain came in next to last, but only because John Cox received fewer votes.  Giuliani was beaten by the non-candidate Fred, both of whom lost to Tommy Thompson.  Romney’s win here isn’t that valuable for him, but considering how miserably the other “major” candidates have been doing it may still be enough to put him over the edge come January.