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Public Opinion And Iran

This is hardly the most important aspect of the debate over the Iranian protests and the administration’s response, but it seems telling that according to Rasmussen’s new poll (via Scoblete) there is not one demographic in which a majority believes that Obama has been insufficiently aggressive in his support for the protesters. This seems all […]

This is hardly the most important aspect of the debate over the Iranian protests and the administration’s response, but it seems telling that according to Rasmussen’s new poll (via Scoblete) there is not one demographic in which a majority believes that Obama has been insufficiently aggressive in his support for the protesters. This seems all the more striking given that an overall majority (54%) of likely voters believes that it makes a difference for U.S. national security who is the next Iranian President. The 54% who believe this are wrong, but what is interesting is that they think it matters for the United States whether or not Mousavi prevails and they are still not inclined to embrace the criticism that the administration has been “timid and passive,” as Lindsay Graham put it yesterday. Just 35% believe Obama has not been aggressive enough in his support; 43% believe the level of support has been “about right” and 9% (including 15% of Republicans) think he has been “too aggressive. This is good news. It means that there is no political gain with the public by being more “forceful,” which should make the administration less susceptible to pressure to take a “tougher” line that most of its members seem to understand would be a mistake.

The other noteworthy thing about these results is that 38% of Republicans think Obama’s support for the protesters has been the right amount or even too much (23/15), and 46% of independents think the same (41/5). Even among self-described conservatives, just 49% think he has not been aggressive enough, and as we have seen only one-third of all voters agrees with the Krauthammer/Wolfowitz/McCain/Graham line.

The poll also has a new crosstab feature, the “Political Class Index,” which is supposed to distinguish between popular and elite opinion. Rasmussen has defined the distinction this way:

The Political Class and Mainstream classifications are determined by the answers to three questions measuring general attitudes about government. Most Americans trust the judgment of the public more than political leaders, view the federal government as a special interest group, and believe that big business and big government work together against the interests of investors and consumers. Only seven percent (7%) share the opposite view and can be considered part of the Political Class. Another seven percent (7%) lean towards the Political Class.

As I read the crosstabs, elite pressure on the administration to take a “tougher” line will likely be minimal and will be limited to the usual suspects. 78% of the “political class” respondents (including leaners) approve of Obama’s response, compared to just 38% of the “mainstream” respondents. However, even among “mainstream” respondents only 41% agree with the view that Obama’s support has been insufficient. So there is a real constituency for the nonsense we have been hearing, but it does not represent anything like a majority of the public at this time.

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