fbpx
Politics Foreign Affairs Culture Fellows Program

Pawlenty Was Right to Quit

Isaac Chotiner suggests that Pawlenty may have given up too easily: It seems possible, however, that Pawlenty badly miscalculated. If we have learned one thing from this election, it is that every candidate will get his or her time in the sun. Bachmann did. Cain did. Even Gingrich is likely to, as Ed Kilgore explains […]

Isaac Chotiner suggests that Pawlenty may have given up too easily:

It seems possible, however, that Pawlenty badly miscalculated. If we have learned one thing from this election, it is that every candidate will get his or her time in the sun. Bachmann did. Cain did. Even Gingrich is likely to, as Ed Kilgore explains here. Surely this would have been true of Pawlenty, who is a much more credible alternative to Romney. What’s more, when Pawlenty quit it was not even clear that Perry would be a strong candidate (he has not been).

Chotiner acknowledges Pawlenty’s difficulty in fundraising, and this wouldn’t have been solved by remaining in the race. I’m not sure that Pawlenty miscalculated at all when he decided to drop out. Chotiner underestimates just how demoralizing it would have been for Pawlenty to watch Perry and then Cain enjoy polling surges while he continued to linger at the back of the pack. Each new poll would have occasioned new articles asking why Pawlenty was doing so badly, and each fundraising report would have confirmed that Pawlenty wasn’t catching on with donors. Had he remained in after Ames, he probably would have decided to quit sometime this fall just as Sam Brownback did a little over four years ago. By quitting back in August, he saved himself and his supporters time, energy, and money.

What we have learned so far is that every candidate that tries to appeal to anti-establishment sentiment temporarily gains a large, fickle following. Cain may hold onto this following a bit longer, if only because there are so few remaining “outsider” candidates. Gingrich isn’t a very good candidate for the role of outsider, and Pawlenty never tried out for it. Pawlenty defined himself from the beginning as the establishment-approved alternative to Romney, but this never translated into enthusiasm or broad support from activists and less ideological voters. The people rallying behind Bachmann, Perry, and now Cain would not have rallied around Pawlenty for the simple reason that Pawlenty too closely resembles the sort of establishment Republican that these people want to defeat, and Pawlenty gave them every reason to believe that. This analysis also overlooks the central problem of Pawlenty’s campaign, which was that Iowa was crucial to his chances, he spent an enormous amount of time in Iowa, and he never made much of a dent in winning over Iowan Republicans.

Advertisement

Comments

The American Conservative Memberships
Become a Member today for a growing stake in the conservative movement.
Join here!
Join here