Overperforming
There’s no reason to credit the exit polls too much, but if CNN’s exit polls are at all accurate, Obama may end up taking Indiana in addition to Missouri, which would give him 375 electoral votes by the end of the night. If New Mexico’s CNN exit poll is reliable, and assuming that New Mexico backs the popular vote winner at around the same level that he receives nationally as it usually does, Obama is looking at a solid 55%.
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