NYT lists FL-22 (currently held by Republican E. Clay Shaw) as a toss-up, as opposed to the Evans-Novak Political Report, which says the district leans to the GOP.  But I predict that possible weak conservative turnout for Harris and GOP gubernatorial candidate Crist (a social moderate) could hurt Shaw’s chances of re-election and unexpectedly cost the Republicans a seat from Florida.  His challenger Ron Klein at least appears well-funded.

NYT lists Heather Wilson, who is unfortunately my Congresswoman, in NM-1 as being in a toss-up race with Attorney General Patricia Madrid, while Evans-Novak says that it leans to the GOP.  Local polls have Wilson at 45% to Madrid’s 42%, which shows vulnerability for the incumbent.  Admittedly, NM-1 has never been won by a Democrat since the new redistricting, but it is a fairly evenly divided district.  Even after Madrid sabotaged a federal corruption investigation against former State Treasurer Vigil by indicting the immunised witnesses on state charges, she does not seem to be suffering undue public backlash.  New Mexicans, including this New Mexican, want her gone and they are just waiting for a sign that Madrid is not completely incompetent.  We are still waiting.  But look for Wilson’s numbers to be a good indicator of the overall trends this year.

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