It doesn’t really surprise me that Sarah Palin has endorsed Carly Fiorina in the Republican Senate primary in California. After all, who would appreciate a failed corporate executive better than a failed state executive?

It is interesting that Palin chose a primary candidate with no discernible connection to any of her Tea Party enthusiasts. This has caused more than a little anger among her fans, as Palin has ignored the more long-shot insurgent Chuck DeVore. Instead, she has rallied around Fiorina as the anti-Campbell candidate, describing Campbell as a “liberal Republican” no different from Boxer. As Boaz points out, this is not really true. It also doesn’t seem true that Fiorina can beat Boxer. I doubt that Boxer will lose, but she certainly isn’t going to lose to Fiorina.

Perhaps most important in explaining this decision is Fiorina’s connection to the McCain camp. The backlash against Palin that I predicted (a little too confidently) would occur if she actively backed McCain now seems to be happening in response to her endorsement of a McCain crony. I underestimated how many excuses her fans would make for her after she endorsed McCain, and I overestimated how important political principles were for many of them, but it seems that there is one part of my earlier prediction that is now coming true after the Fiorina endorsement:

Perhaps Palin could come up with some tortured rationale that siding with the establishment-friendly incumbent would be the crazy “maverick” thing to do, much as she claimed that staying in office would be the easy way out and quitting would be the courageous, bold move, but she would destroy the foundation of rank-and-file conservatives’ love for her.

This is just the latest in a string of episodes that show Palin’s “populism” to be phony and no more than an exercise in sending the right cultural signals. Having said all that, what may be most remarkable about Palin’s endorsement is that it is the sort of cautious, pro-establishment move one expects from Mitt Romney, who actually is running for President in 2012. It is not what we would expect to see from the celebrity entertainer who has done none of the things a future presidential candidate would do. This is a move that a pragmatist eager to build a political and fundraising network would make. For someone engaged in the steady building-up of a cult of personality and a profitable television career, this is extremely foolish.