The essence of the establishment’s criticism O’Donnell is that she is a “flawed” candidate who can’t win in November. Unfortunately for the establishment, their credibility was shattered when O’Donnell won the primary. ~R.S. McCain

Well, as far as this Senate race is concerned their credibility is going to be pieced together again in a couple months. Sean Trende writes this morning:

O’Donnell really can’t win….O’Donnell is weaker than Paul or Angle, and she’s running in a state that gave Obama 62 percent of the vote. She’ll do better than her 2008 showing, but it won’t be enough.

If anything, Trende has been overstating the strength of Republicans in this election cycle, so if he thinks a candidate isn’t competitive she really isn’t. In 2008, O’Donnell received 140,595 votes and lost by over 116,000. Now that she had defeated Castle, many of Castle’s supporters are probably going to back Coons. PPP’s new polling suggests that this is what will happen: Coons is already pulling away 25% of Republicans in Delaware. Conservatives can cry about this if they want, but this was what was going to happen if O’Donnell became the nominee. Contrary to the spin her campaign was offering McCain, O’Donnell trails Coons among independents:

He also has a narrow 42-36 advantage with independents, a group Democrats are losing with most everywhere else.

Reportedly, her favorability in Delaware is 29-50, and her unfavorable number shot up 17 points in a month thanks to the barrage of attacks against her. Right now, she is polling at 34%, which is right around the 35% she received in her run against Biden in a much more Democratic year, so it is possible that she may end up winning less support than she did in 2008. For one thing, she didn’t win the nomination last time after an extremely bitter primary fight, and the fight has clearly taken a toll on how many voters perceive her.

O’Donnell’s nomination gives us all a chance to see a general election test of how someone as widely disliked as Palin and endorsed by Palin will fare with a broader moderate-to-liberal electorate.