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Obama's Democrat Problem, Continued

To follow up on the very popular Obama post below, it’s worth noting that Rasmussen state-by-state polling also shows Democratic defections from an Obama-led ticket, either to McCain or to a third party.  According to Rasmussen, in Iowa, where it all began, Obama runs three points ahead of McCain right now, but 11% want “some other candidate.”  […]

To follow up on the very popular Obama post below, it’s worth noting that Rasmussen state-by-state polling also shows Democratic defections from an Obama-led ticket, either to McCain or to a third party.  According to Rasmussen, in Iowa, where it all began, Obama runs three points ahead of McCain right now, but 11% want “some other candidate.”  Among Democrats, he receives only 75% with 10% backing McCain and 13% opting for “some other candidate.”  There is potentially more space than usual for an independent or third-party candidate in this election rather than less.  In Iowa Obama’s problem does seem to be concentrated most among liberals, 14% of whom opted for “some other candidate” and 10% of whom chose McCain.  McCain’s weakness with the right could have been and was predicted, but Obama’s weakness with the left will probably come as a surprise to those who have not been following the campaign extremely closely.  McCain has his share of problems in Iowa, too, since he gets only 68% of conservatives, losing 18 to Obama and 10 to “some other candidate.” 

Surely, New Hampshire is better for Obama, since he leads by a much wider margin, right?  Well, yes and no.  Obviously, New Hampshire has been trending Democratic for the last several years, and he has strong support from independents, but even here he draws just 78% of Democrats and 79% of liberals.  What gives him such a commanding lead is the pathetic level of support McCain gets from conservatives (60%) and Republicans (64%).  For a while I have been thinking of an Obama v. McCain race as a “race to the bottom,” but couldn’t really put my finger on why this phrase kept occurring to me.  Now I think I have it: both party bases seem remarkably dissatisfied (the Republican more volubly so), and the winner will be the one whose base is least dispirited and disaffected from the nominee.

I have already discussed the amazing extent of Democratic defections in New Mexico that make the race there a dead-heat between McCain and Obama.  Next, consider Ohio, where McCain was essentially tied with Obama 42-41 (9% opting for another candidate) as of last week.  Ohio was one of the great slaughterhouses of Republican candidates in ’06 and was presumed to be trending strongly Democratic.  I cannot find crosstabs for this poll.  A 2/24 Wisconsin poll shows Obama and McCain essentially tied 44-43, and Obama again gets 76% of Democrats and just 70% of liberals.  And these are all states that Rasmussen describes as “leaning Democratic.”  The pattern appears again in Nevada, where Obama leads McCain by 12 but gets just 72% of Democrats.  It’s the same for Pennsylvania, where Obama holds a wide lead by virtue of McCain’s even larger problems with his own party but only gets 72% of Democrats.

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