While FiveThirtyEight still projects that Obama will win Ohio and has an explanation for some of the huge difference between Rasmussen (McCain +10) and PPP (Obama +8) on Ohio, this new Rasmussen poll from Ohio is still pretty startling in the movement that it shows relative to last month. According to the poll, McCain has gained eight points in the last month and now leads (including leaners) 52-42. Update: I should note that the June poll did not distinguish between results with and without leaners, so the movement in the result without leaners has not been as great: McCain has moved up two and Obama has dropped down three in the first round.
Obama’s fav rating is down three to 50%, and he gets just 34% of whites and 77% of Democrats. While he trails among independents 56-33, Obama also loses among 18-29 year olds 50-39. Obviously, Republican candidates have not won without winning Ohio, so it is essential for McCain to keep whatever lead he has there. Also, many months remain and this result may not reflect changed attitudes following Obama’s overseas trip. On the other hand, the poll was conducted yesterday, so it is possible that the respondents saw or heard some positive coverage of Obama’s trip and still did not come away with a significantly different view of the candidate. It is still too soon to know one way or the other.