There are plenty of caveats to make about this new Rasmussen poll from New Jersey: this early in the year Clinton is almost certainly bound to run much better than Obama in a state that borders New York, especially when so many people in New Jersey are part of New York’s media market, and despite what feels like saturation coverage to those of us who follow the campaign closely Obama remains less well-known nationally.  Obama did not campaign heavily in New Jersey, acknowledging Clinton’s advantages there on February 5, so he will have made less of an impression even among the state’s Democratic primary electorate, and he will have made even less of an impression among other voters.  Even so, the difference is striking: Clinton leads 50-39 in New Jersey, as you might expect in a state that has voted Democratic in the presidential election for the last four cycles, but in an Obama v. McCain race McCain leads 45-43.  Relative to Clinton, Obama loses five points among men and nine points among women.  He loses seven points among Democrats, pulling in just 65%, and five points among liberals.  He draws only half as many Republicans (10%), he gets eight fewer points among conservatives (12%) and twelve fewer among moderates (43%).  Even among his core of independents he runs four points weaker, though he does still win independents against McCain.

Now, get ready for this: the poll shows that 18-29 year olds in New Jersey back McCain over Obama 61-29 (Clinton runs ten points better).  Unless there has been some massive error here, the kids in Jersey are not that excited about hope (or, arguably, they still have no idea who Obama is).  Preferences by income group are revealing: Clinton runs more competitively against McCain in all groups but one, while Obama trails among lower-income groups and leads among the higher-income earners.  Obama’s weakness in New Jersey is presumably closely related to his fairly high unfav rating (45%) in the state.  According to Rasmussen, he receives a 50% “very unfavorable” rating from 18-29 year olds, which is the highest very unfav rating from any demographic group in this poll (only those who chose national security as their top issue view him more unfavourably at 65%).  In total, Obama has a 61% unfav rating among 18-29 year olds in the state, which, as you can see, is exactly the same percentage that backed McCain.  This turns an important part of what a lot of us have assumed about Obama’s core supporters on its head, at least in this part of the country: young people in New Jersey apparently really dislike him.  Perhaps they endured one insipid dipdive video too many.  I feel their pain.     

Some of the numbers from this poll seem strange, and I want to follow up in the future when Rasmussen releases their next one to see if these patterns hold up, but as of right now it appears as if New Jersey could theoretically be in play if Obama is the nominee.  Given the fundamental strengths that the Democrats have in this election, that simply shouldn’t be happening in this cycle.  Something strange is going on.