Obama v. Clinton (Pennsylvania)
Among likely Pennsylvania Democratic primary voters, Obama trails by 13 and has slightly higher unfav ratings (27 to Clinton’s 22). To address Noam Scheiber’s point about a different Pennsylvania poll, it seems that there is a sizeable number (30%) of white Democrats who are unlikely or very unlikely to vote for Obama against McCain in the general. According to Rasmussen, even 8% of black Democrats are unlikely or very unlikely to vote for Obama against McCain. 17% of white Democrats and 23% of black Democrats are unlikely or very unlikely to vote for Clinton against McCain. Obama’s unfavs among white Democrats are 33%, which is comparable to Clinton’s unfavs among black Democrats (30%). Overall, 78% of respondents say they are somewhat or very likely to vote for Clinton against McCain, and just 71% say the same about Obama. 18% are unlikely/very unlikely to vote for Clinton, while 26% say the same about Obama.
As the general election polling from Pennsylvania makes clear, Obama does as well as he does in the match-up with McCain because he draws enough Republican and independent support to offset the Democratic defections that he would likely suffer. Clinton draws fewer non-Democrats, but retains enough Democrats to do slightly better against McCain than Obama according to current preferences.
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