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Natural Results

The problem with our thinking on Iranian influence in Iraq is we assume it to all be nefarious and cabal-esque, when in truth much of it is just geographic destiny. Iranian influence in Iraq is inevitable and – thanks in part to the United States – now expedited. There’s no horse race to handicap in […]

The problem with our thinking on Iranian influence in Iraq is we assume it to all be nefarious and cabal-esque, when in truth much of it is just geographic destiny. Iranian influence in Iraq is inevitable and – thanks in part to the United States – now expedited. There’s no horse race to handicap in this case; that race was lost in 2003. ~Kevin Sullivan

All of this is right, and the same lesson could be applied to other parts of the world. Instead of describing Russian influence in its near-abroad as “revisionism” or “imperialism” or, more absurdly, taking it as proof of a “neo-Soviet” Russia, we could acknowledge that neighboring states that are heavily dependent on Russia for energy and trade are going to end up in Moscow’s orbit. We might go one step beyond that and say that it is futile and probably dangerous to try to prevent this, and the experience of Georgia in the last few years should serve as a cautionary tale for what happens when we do try.

We could also draw another lesson from the growth of Iranian influence and power following the invasion of Iraq, and this is that policies that are supposed to increase and advance American power can be short-sighted and counterproductive. Indeed, these policies can ultimately produce the opposite result. More than that, we could conclude from this experience that the people most intent on securing and perpetuating U.S. hegemony are often the worst judges of how to do this. So, instead of gnashing our teeth over the growth of a left-populist bloc of Latin American states that tends to take a dim view of American intervention in their region, we could see this instead as the natural result of democratization in countries where majorities of the population are finally being empowered. These majorities are understandably reacting against the neoliberal consensus that Washington pushed on Latin America during the last two decades, and they are electing governments that profess their disagreement with some or all of this consensus.

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