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Missing The Point

Josh Marshall [1] isn’t helping:

Wow, going to war with Russia might be necessary if Russia invades another one of the former states of the Soviet Union. So says Sarah Palin. War with Russia over Armenia [bold mine-DL]? If Russia and Georgia go at it again?

Unfortunately, this misses the point that Palin was talking about going to war to defend NATO members, which she thinks should include Georgia and Ukraine, as people at The Corner [2] are only too happy to point out.  Instead of ridiculing the notion of expanding NATO into the Caucasus, Marshall blows it.  Hemingway is also glad to remind Marshall that Obama and Biden support exactly the same thing for Georgia and Ukraine, which happens to be true and it also happens to be something I have been talking about for months. 

I would make the additional point that anyone with much understanding of the geopolitics of the Caucasus would know that Armenia is Russia’s most faithful ally in the region and there is no chance whatever of a Russo-Armenian conflict, not least because Russia and Armenia do not border on one another and landlocked Armenia is even more heavily dependent on Russian energy and trade than Georgia.  For that matter, while Russia regards Karabakh as quite distinct from the cases of South Ossetia and Abkhazia and even though it also has important trade relations with Azerbaijan, the likeliest scenario would be Russia coming to the aid of Armenia in the event of any Azeri attempt to retake Karabakh.