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Is Europe Worse Off? Hardly

Obama’s handling of the policy reversal on missile defense, in particular, has drawn sharp rebukes from the region, mostly on the execution rather than the policy itself. A Polish official was quoted by United Press International proclaiming that, “Waking Czech Prime Minister Fisher at midnight European time, and calling President Lech Kaczynski and Prime Minister […]

Obama’s handling of the policy reversal on missile defense, in particular, has drawn sharp rebukes from the region, mostly on the execution rather than the policy itself. A Polish official was quoted by United Press International proclaiming that, “Waking Czech Prime Minister Fisher at midnight European time, and calling President Lech Kaczynski and Prime Minister Tusk — who refused to take the call — 70 years to the day that Russia invaded Poland — is politically inept and very offensive.” Another official added, “this simply confirms how unimportant Europe is to the U.S., despite President Obama’s words to the contrary.” ~James Joyner

James calls this “somewhat overstated,” when it seems to me that absurdly overblown would be a better way of describing it. You cannot gauge the importance or unimportance of Europe to the United States on the largely cosmetic, superficial and procedural clashes Washington has had with various European states in the last nine months. Under the previous administration, Europe continued to be “important” to the U.S. even when major EU powers opposed administration policy in very public, dramatic ways. To the extent that Obama is losing ground with Europeans, he had far more goodwill and support to lose; in almost every European country, he continues to rate higher after the drop-off from unrealistic expectations than Bush did at almost any point. Obviously relations were and remained far more strained under the last administration than they have been so far under this one. We notice the minor clashes that have taken place because there was a widely-shared, unreasonable expectation that amity and concord with Europe would prevail under Obama.

Just as Obama’s policies have not changed very much from those of his predecessor, neither have the points of contention with European allies changed. NATO members were uninterested in committing more forces to Afghanistan last year, and they remain uninterested in doing so. Complaints of having to wait for Obama’s decision are a cover for the indecision and unwillingness of most European governments to participate more fully in the mission. Had Obama speedily decided on an increase in troop levels, the same governments that complain of delay would probably be annoyed by Obama’s hastiness.

European and especially German interests were flatly ignored by Bush when it came to handling Russia. Promises to Ukraine and Georgia of eventual membership in NATO were given over strenuous German opposition. Were European interests and opinions being heeded then? No. The missile defense ploy prompted Moscow to threaten abandoning its commitments under the European conventional forces treaty and elicited a great deal of bluster from Medvedev about targeting Russian missiles on European soil. Was European security strengthened by any of this? No. What matter then if Bush went through the motions and observed the right formalities when he was getting the major decisions wrong?

Most western European allies were not seriously consulted, nor were their objections given much weight, when the Bush administration decided to push ahead with the missile defense plan. In all of the new commentary claiming that Europe has soured on Obama, this seems not to count at all. The last administration probably would have preferred not to have these missile defense arrangements made bilaterally, but they had to be because most major NATO nations wanted nothing to do with it, which was why the system had to be set up as a joint venture among the three states involved. In fact, on the substance of the decision most Europeans and a plurality of Poles and Czechs welcomed Obama’s reversal. It remains true that Obama has stepped on some toes and handled things poorly when it comes to matters of protocol, but the U.S.-European disagreements of the last few years have centered on substantive and frequently major differences in worldview. Many of these remain, because the interests and values of America and Europe are not identical. That will always be true, no matter who is in the White House.

P.S. James also claims that Bush made eastern and central Europe a “priority” and cites the missile defense plan and proposed NATO expansion into Ukraine and Georgia as examples. It is true that Bush paid a great deal of attention to this part of Europe by way of stoking irresponsible nationalist politics in all of the states involved and provoking Russia in ways detrimental to the security of these states. God protect these nations from any more of that kind of attention. The last administration also recognized Kosovo’s independence, which contributed significantly to Russia’s later partition of Georgia. If the last administration “prioritized” eastern and central Europe in such dangerous and counterproductive ways, perhaps a certain degree of neglect would be better.

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