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Is a Cease-Fire Near in Libya?

Tony Karon believes that a political settlement to the Libyan war is near: Calls for a cease-fire are now coming from key players in the alliance, including Italy (the only country from whose territory air sorties are being flown — most of the combat missions are flown from the French aircraft carrier Charles De Gaulle, […]

Tony Karon believes that a political settlement to the Libyan war is near:

Calls for a cease-fire are now coming from key players in the alliance, including Italy (the only country from whose territory air sorties are being flown — most of the combat missions are flown from the French aircraft carrier Charles De Gaulle, which is be rotated out of the theater in September, with no obvious replacement) and Turkey — on whom the alliance will depend to supply any ground forces needed to police a post-conflict situation. Their preference for a political solution now is shared by the African Union and the Arab League, whose political support was vital to enable a third Western military campaign in a Muslim country within the space of decade.

I hope Karon is right, but let’s think about this. As Karon says, Italy is a “key” player in that its bases have been important for waging the bombing campaign in Libya, but it never wanted military intervention, it dragged its feet before committing its planes to the war, and it is pushing for a cease-fire because the Italian coalition government is under pressure from its junior partner, the Northern League, which is strongly opposed to continuing the war. Likewise, Turkey never wanted military intervention, and it has contributed as little as possible to the NATO mission, and its contribution remains limited to enforcing the very arms embargo that the French are so blatantly violating. The intervening governments have never cared what the AU thought, because they consider it a forum dominated by Gaddafi allies, and as soon as they received the Arab League’s “permission” the U.S. and its allies have remembered that they don’t care what the Arab League thinks, either. For these governments and organizations to want a cease-fire is natural, because none of them really wanted the war for regime change that the U.S. and its allies have been waging. When the governments that are most heavily involved in waging the war against Libya (including the U.S.) begin expressing support for a cease-fire, it might actually happen.

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