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Goodbye, Heather!

In an election in New Mexico’s 1st Congressional District today, 10/16/06, Democrat challenger Patrica Madrid tops Republican incumbent Heather Wilson by 8 points, 53% to 45%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KOB-TV Albuquerque. Since an identical SurveyUSA KOB-TV poll released 9/21/06, Madrid has gained 7 points and Wilson has lost 6 points. […]

In an election in New Mexico’s 1st Congressional District today, 10/16/06, Democrat challenger Patrica Madrid tops Republican incumbent Heather Wilson by 8 points, 53% to 45%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KOB-TV Albuquerque. Since an identical SurveyUSA KOB-TV poll released 9/21/06, Madrid has gained 7 points and Wilson has lost 6 points. Wilson had led by 5, now trails by 8, a 13-point swing. ~Survey USA

It’s almost too good to believe.  This was supposed to be a race that went down to the wire.  I believe it is also a race that will represent the direction of the election and the extent of GOP defeat, as NM-01 has been a traditionally Republican-leaning district since it was formed in what is more or less its current shape.  Wilson always finishes strong, so it still isn’t over yet and she might still make a comeback, but as I recall she has never been this far behind an opponent at this stage of the race. 

She benefits disproportionately from absentee voters (not this absentee voter, I would add), who are often military voters or who are travelling for business, but this time I think Republican voters are so dispirited (there are many fewer likely Republican voters in NM-01 now than there were a month ago) that her absentee advantage will disappear or be insufficient.  Obviously, I am pleased to see this, as I have been banging the drum for Wilson’s defeat all year long and wanted to see her defeated two years ago for her support for Iraq.  Besides being a “moderate,” pro-choice Republican, Wilson went from being someone I could support for her opposition to Kosovo (she opposed it mainly because it was a waste of military resources, which is one good reason) to someone who has backed the Iraq war to the hilt in spite of the much greater damage it has done to the armed forces.  Perhaps Kosovo bothered her more because she was in the Air Force, and the degradation of and strains put on the other services don’t bother her as much, but the main difference is that one of her party launched an unnecessary war that is slowly ruining the military and that is fine by her. 

There are three other districts polled by Survey USA (CA-50, AZ-5, MN-02) that are all showing different degrees of weakness by the Republicans.  AZ-5 is J.D. Hayworth’s district.  His race shouldn’t even be competitive.  That it is tells us just how bad this year will be for them.

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