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Enthusiasm

The new CBS/NYT poll offers some evidence that the GOP ticket has not enjoyed a bounce from the Palin announcement so much as it has coincided with an odd Obama weakening, as an eight-point lead last week at this time has become a tie mainly through weakening support for Obama and a slight increase in […]

The new CBS/NYT poll offers some evidence that the GOP ticket has not enjoyed a bounce from the Palin announcement so much as it has coincided with an odd Obama weakening, as an eight-point lead last week at this time has become a tie mainly through weakening support for Obama and a slight increase in the number of undecided voters.  During the days between Sunday, when the last poll was completed, and today Obama voters have become significantly less enthusiastic about their ticket (from 67% to 55%) and they are more likely to support Obama/Biden with reservations (from 16% to 30%).  Enthusiasm for McCain among his backers has ticked up 10 points this week.  An enthusiasm gap that had been like a yawning chasm has become a much narrower divide.  I can understand why McCain’s number went up, but it makes no sense that any Obama supporters would become less enthusiastic about their ticket on account of the Palin selection. 

More troubling for Obama is the figure on his effectiveness as Commander-in-Chief, which has actually declined by a few points since the weekend.  Perhaps the constant comparisons between Palin and Obama have worked to Obama’s disadvantage, and it may be that the attacks on McCain’s judgement because of the VP selection have not registered with these respondents.  McCain has gained slightly with independents, now trailing by three instead of six, and has solidified white evangelicals behind him even more (as he was inevitably going to do anyway–another reason why the Palin pick, besides being risky, was probably redundant in at least some respects).  The white evangelical numbers are interesting: Obama receives just 18% support from this group, which is just about the lowest level he or any previous Democratic nominee has ever received in a poll.

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