Seventy-two per cent of the American public disapprove of Bush’s handling of the war and 76 per cent believe that the ‘surge’ is not improving matters. Even normally loyal Republicans are making clear that their patience is limited. A rapid British withdrawal would therefore make the Bush administration’s position politically untenable. One senior Republican congressman warns, ‘If Britain pulls out, it’s game over.’ In these circumstances, the update on the progress of the surge that the new US commander, General Petraeus, is due to deliver in September would become largely academic. Bush would not just be a lame duck; he would be a paralysed president, with Congress refusing to fund the war except on its terms. ~James Forsyth

This would be a very bold move in an area of policy where Brown has no particular claim to credibility or ability.  That is one reason why I am skeptical that he will do it.  In my estimation, Brown seems to like to be in control of a situation and does not normally seem to be one given to rash or precipitous moves.  If others are urging him to make this decision, he will hold off and make it in his own good time.  It would be enormously popular, but it would also cause him to be compared unflatteringly in Atlanticist papers with Spanish PM Zapatero (the last left-wing leader who pulled out of Iraq immediately after taking office).  The Economist would tut-tut, The Financial Times would wag its finger, the Times would shake its head, the Telegraph would go absolutely ballistic and the Mail would be, well, the Mail.  There are virtually no actual war supporters left in Britain (it has collapsed to the low teens in recent polling), but this establishment reaction wouldn’t be about support for the war.  It would be a reaction against the perceived slight against Washington and the endangerment of the connection with America.  Indeed, the more significance observers regard Brown’s decision as having, the more likely the establishment reaction to his decision will be negative.  Poland can withdraw its troops because there is no sense that Poland was that vital to the overall effort; Spain can pull out and not be missed.  When Britain pulls out, not even neocons in all their Churchillophilia will be able to stifle cries of “perfidious Albion”–indeed the Churchillophiles will be among the first to condemn Brown as a new Chamberlain.  Britons will love Brown for this.  Many in the establishment, whether or not they actually agree with the substance of the decision, will not be pleased.  

There is something a bit absurd about all of this talk of the significance of Brown’s move.  Supposing that Britain’s full, post-haste withdrawal from Iraq did destroy Mr. Bush’s position here at home even more, it is a pretty sorry statement on the quality of American government.  According to this story, our own elections and elected representatives can’t achieve a thing, but Tony Blair’s resignation ends up having monumental impact.  This doesn’t really make much sense.  If the British leave Iraq, I’m sorry to say that this makes the current plan no less likely to succeed.  More to the point, if all we are waiting on to pull the plug on the war is Gordon Brown’s say-so, why are we continuing to waste the lives of Americans on a plan whose American political support hinges on the decision of a rotund Scotsman?   

However, I’m afraid that some of our British cousins have convinced themselves of their government possessing greater importance than their government, in fact, has.  Tony Blair used this claim of tremendous influence that ultimately earned him the sobriquet of poodle and yielded no tangible results for Britain.  Most people there and here know better than to think that London’s moves these days have much impact in Washington at all.  We are talking about the Bush administration here, and they have never let anything so inconvenient as political change get in their way in the past.  A few more Senators and House members may voice their opposition, but if a total collapse in Mr. Bush’s support is coming it will come because of something else.