Bailout Deal About To Hit A Wall?

Now that there is a bailout deal, the House vote is coming up and there is still reason to think that there may not be enough votes to pass the legislation.  While party leaders have all signed off on the deal, there are enough skeptics from both parties that passage is not guaranteed.  An unusual alliance between the Mike Pences and Dennis Kuciniches of the world is forming.  If it stalls in the House this week, I don’t think anything resembling Paulson’s plan is going to pass later.  The timing of all this is uniquely bad for advocates of the bailout, as there is much greater unwillingness to vote for this bill right before going back to home districts, where opinion seems to be running almost two-to-one against the plan. 

50% are opposed and 24% support the plan in Rasmussen’s latest.  What little support there has been for the plan has actually decreaseddespite the rabid fearmongering of the administration and most of the media.  60% are concerned that the government will do too much, compared to 28% who are concerned the government will do too little.  Near-majorities of both parties oppose the bailout, as does a majority of independents.  51% of investors oppose the plan, and non-investors are equally against it.  Support is slightly greater among high-income respondents, but never reaches even a third of any income group.  Remarkably, the people who have the most reason to oppose the government taking on additional debt, the 18-29 year olds, are most inclined of any group to support the move (36%).  It seems likely that any member voting for this bill will face a nasty backlash.  The absurdly low job approval ratings for Congress and the wrong-track numbers all suggest that populist outrage over this bill will lead to the ousting of many more incumbents from both parties.  Whichever side is perceived as most in favor of the bailout will probably be the one to suffer the most, which could scramble all of the expectations of another big year for Democrats in the House and the Senate. 

Update: More profiles in courage.  This is pathetic evasion by both nominees if they avoid the vote, but it is also pretty smart politically.  Their votes probably aren’t needed in the Senate to pass this anyway if it comes to that, and there is definitely nothing to be gained by voting for it.  It certainly puts their doomsaying in perspective.

Judd Gregg of New Hampshire has been quoted saying, ““If we don’t pass it, we shouldn’t be in Congress.”  Gregg should understand that if they do pass it many of them won’t be in Congress come January.

Second Update: Paul Ryan (R-WI) has flipped and now backs the bill.  That suggests that conservative resistance is crumbling.