On the main blog, Freddy noted yesterday that the April 9 movement* was gearing up for its protest against Saakashvili, which has begun in Tbilisi. So far, the riot Freddy predicted has not materialized, and we can hope that it will not. Contrary to what Saakashvili apologists will claim, his Western critics do not want to see the Georgian people suffer, but have long seen his presidency as the disaster for Georgia that it now clearly is. It would be best for Georgia if Saakashvili stepped down, but that would not be his style. Contrary to fears that riots in Moldova would make today’s protests more volatile, which did not make much sense, the protests in Tbilisi appear to be basically peaceful.

If violence does flare up, it is more likely that it will be Saakashvili’s government that will attack the protesters as it did during the protests in late 2007, but perhaps even Saakashvili has learned his lesson from the political backlash and international outcry his heavy-handed actions caused back then. My guess is that the April 9 demand for Saakashvili’s resignation will be ignored by the government, and the opposition lacks a clear alternative leader who can serve as a rallying point for anti-Saakashvili forces.

Crucially, unlike Saakashvili’s predecessor, Eduard Shevardnadze, Saakashvili continues to enjoy strong U.S. backing, this is not going to change anytime soon, and it was mainly the withdrawal of Washington’s approval that pushed Shevardnadze out in ’03. Meanwhile, I suspect that Moscow will leave Saakashvili to twist in the wind for a while and will probably not take any direct actions in the near future to force him out. (That doesn’t necessarily rule out some Russian involvement in funding or supporting today’s protesters, but then “color” revolutionaries would have to grant that turnabout is fair play.) The war Saakashvili escalated is now coming back to haunt him, and he is beginning to pay the price for it. The Kremlin has no need to oust or pressure any further a leader whose domestic political fortunes are already waning.

*The anti-Saakashvili movement has adopted the day commemorating a violent Soviet crackdown of Georgian protesters to link their cause to the memory of the national tragedy of April 9, 1989.