Now that it is becoming increasingly clear that McCain is going to lose in a blowout (and here I must acknowledge that I never imagined this would happen and assumed the electorate would remain evenly divided), what will be the aftermath within the GOP?  Before we get to that, first consider how truly bizarre a Democratic victory, large or small, will seem.  Democrats have not won an open (i.e., no incumbent President or Vice-President on either side) presidential election since 1884.  Republicans have won the last four fully open elections (1896, 1920, 1928 and 1952).  Republicans are accustomed to their unpopular incumbents being thrown out from time to time, and they are used to their incumbent Presidents or Vice-Presidents winning, and they won all three open elections of the twentieth century, so it has been a very, very long time since they have gone to the country with an ostensibly fresh or at least non-incumbent candidate and been rejected when there is no incumbent on the other side.  That will make this loss much more damaging and shocking than 1996 in the repudiation of the GOP that it will represent.  In 1996, Republicans at least had the consolation of remaining in control of Congress. 

Of course, Republicans have experienced one calamitous defeat in the last fifty years, and this was 1964, which has entered into legend as the springboard for Reagan and the immediate disaster that later yielded success, but this year is not like 1964.  The only real similarity between the two nominees is that they both happen to be from Arizona.  Unlike in ’64, McCain’s nomination was not the product of a bitter intra-party battle that started to change the character of the GOP but was instead an almost default acquiescence to the heir apparent out of a lack of enthusiasm for the alternatives.  After November 4, it is hard to imagine anyone picking up McCain’s standard as the rallying point for the future of the party, because he has resolutely not stood for any coherent message of any kind.  Oh, right, reform–a message as elastic as it has been vacuous.  The Palin Phenomenon has gone from what some thought might be the future of the American right to a growing debacle that her fans hope will not become an absolute nightmare tomorrow night.  Obviously, losing VP candidates do not return to claim the leadership of their party, especially not if they are on the losing side of a lopsided election, so whether or not Palin has contributed significantly to McCain’s defeat (probably) she will be dragged down with him and that will be the end of her story on the national stage. 

It is hard to know what the Democrats will do with a victory.  If the last two years are any indication, they will squander it as recklessly as the Republicans squandered their opportunities, but how the GOP will respond, if it will be able to respond, is very much up in the air.  The next few months after Election Day will see all manner of recriminations as the various factions try to find convenient scapegoats, of which Palin will be the most prominent and the easiest to use against social conservatives.  Expect to hear a lot about how Republicans need to “move beyond” and “get over” pro-life concerns.  In the wake of the bailout, whether it passes or doesn’t pass, there will be little patience with more flirtations with anything resembling big-government conservatism.  Expect retrenchment and revivals of the old time religion, and also expect that anything called reform will be viewed warily.  Becoming once more a purely oppositional party, the GOP will promote or keep leaders who are good at giving stemwinders and then cutting pretty awful deals with the Democrats.  The also-rans of 2008 will bide their time, but will find themselves upstaged by some moderate, big-state governor and the return of Jeb Bush.