Ross:

Jonathan Chait and Stephen Spruiell have already chewed over this a bit, but neither have expressed what I think is an appropriate amount of mystification at the idea that immigration reform, of all issues, represents the toughest possible test for Republicans, and a target of opportunity for the Democrats. This is the kind of thing that makes me seriously doubt the White House’s political acumen.

I agree. Prior to anti-bailout anger beginning in 2008, hostility to the worst-of-both-worlds immigration bill in 2007 was the one thing that could unite substantial numbers of people across the political spectrum against the Washington consensus position. The hostility was strong enough to prevent passage of the legislation and make any future “comprehensive reform” bill politically radioactive for years to come. There is almost nothing that could more quickly turn Obama’s labor allies against him and rile up public opposition faster than a push for a new immigration bill. Obama might even be able to bring Republican leaders in the House along by proposing a guest-worker scheme that would please Boehner and Pence, but regardless of what the party leaders accept there would be a rebellion in the ranks of both parties in the House. Obama would expose himself to a punishing battle he couldn’t win, and he would hand restrictionists in the GOP an opportunity to inflict yet another embarrassing defeat on their own leaders. In the process, any compromise bill that might conceivably have enough support in the Senate would include so many provisions for bringing in cheap, unprotected labor and just enough fines for illegal immigrants that it would offend most of the Democratic constituencies interested in “comprehensive reform.” Another fight over immigration policy would probably have a couple salutary political effects. It would remind leaders in both parties what a political disaster advocating amnesty is, and it would force House Republicans to choose between representing their constituents or representing corporate interests.

Like its mishandling of Arizona’s immigration law, the administration’s plan to pick an immigration fight with Republican House leadership next year suggests that they truly don’t understand that advocates of “reform” (amnesty) are very much on the losing side of the issue. As far as Obama’s political interests are concerned, pushing an immigration bill would be a strange act of self-immolation.