Sean Trende looks at the possibility of a repeat of 1994 midterm elections in 2010. There are really two separate questions here: will the GOP be able to make a net gain of seats, and will it be able to win back one or both houses? The first is likely, and these first midterm losses pretty much always happen to the party that controls the White House. 2002 is the most notable exception to this pattern, and its position as the first post-9/11 election may make it a poor example for comparison. However, one of the reasons why the GOP benefited in 2002 was the extraordinarily high popularity of the President, which may work in a reduced way to the Democrats’ benefit next year if Obama continues to have approval ratings at or around 60%. In 1978, the GOP picked up three seats in the Senate and 15 in the House, and this seems like the right midterm election to use as a comparative example for the next year. It came in the middle of the term of the last Democratic President to win more than 50% of the vote in the wake of a Republican era riddled by scandal and tied to a President (Nixon) who was deeply unpopular, and followed four years after the 1974 post-Watergrate drubbing of the GOP in Congress. Indeed, anything less than 1978-level gains by the GOP and it will be reasonable to say that Republican leadership failed badly.

The second possibility of a full GOP comeback in one or both houses is much, much less likely. The sheer number of seats needed in both House and Senate suggests that winning back the majority in either would be extremely difficult. The make-up of the 2010 Senate elections once again works against Republicans. At least four incumbent Republicans are retiring, Judd Gregg’s term is up in New Hampshire (where Sununu lost last year), Specter is vulnerable and will face a strong primary challenge and a credible Democratic opponent should he still be re-nominated, and there are only three new Democratic Senators (Bennet, Burris and Gillibrand, all in office by appointment) where the GOP might manage to pick up seats. Almost every other Democratic incumbent, with the possible exception of Reid, is in a safe seat. The added trouble is that two of these most vulnerable Democrats are in safe Democratic seats (NY, IL), and were it not for Burris’ connections to Blagojevich it is unlikely that the seat would be within the Republicans’ reach at all. Meanwhile, Colorado has not voted for a Republican Senate candidate since 2002, and has since elected two Democrats. Dodd’s ethical woes may make his seat more vulnerable, but a Republican pick-up in Connecticut seems like a long-shot. Meanwhile, Ohio, Florida and Missouri all have open seats in states that have been trending Democratic. On the flip side, as Trende notes, because they are in the majority in both houses the Democrats have not had a wave of retirements opening up marginal districts to truly competitive races. The Republicans in Congress also continue to suffer from a destroyed reputation that will take longer than two years to repair. At the moment, another 1978 election would be a huge success for this rudderless party.