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2010 and The Generic Ballot

This is a handy table from last November that provides a more precise picture of what would be required for a Republican takeover of the House.  As the table shows, even a 48% result could leave the Democrats with a majority.  If we look at the generic ballot poll from Rasmussen, whose likely voter screen is the most […]

Gallup Midterm Election Seat-Prediction Model: Predictions of Democratic House Seats, Based on Ultimate Democratic Share of Vote

This is a handy table from last November that provides a more precise picture of what would be required for a Republican takeover of the House.  As the table shows, even a 48% result could leave the Democrats with a majority.  If we look at the generic ballot poll from Rasmussen, whose likely voter screen is the most favorable to Republicans, we find that Republicans have a wide lead but register only 44% support.  “Not sure” and “other” receive 14% and 6% respectively.  According to the poll, 37% of independents are unsure which party they will support or say they prefer a third option.  Republicans have 45% of  independents, which is as well as they have done with this group in the last year, but despite the large number of independents unwilling to state their support for the Democrats the GOP is not winning them over.  As disaffected as these independents have become, they have not yet moved into the Republican column, and this is not surprising.  It was overwhelmingly these voters who fled from the GOP in the last four years, and they have not forgotten the reasons why they did this.

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