fbpx
Politics Foreign Affairs Culture Fellows Program

Newt’s going to win SC — poll

Via Andrew, here’s a press release from Clemson University announcing results of their final poll before tomorrow’s primary. Romney has collapsed: “We expect a reaction by the electorate to the personal revelations about Gingrich to be registered on Saturday, however, we do not think it will be substantial enough to erase the lead Gingrich has […]

Via Andrew, here’s a press release from Clemson University announcing results of their final poll before tomorrow’s primary. Romney has collapsed:

“We expect a reaction by the electorate to the personal revelations about Gingrich to be registered on Saturday, however, we do not think it will be substantial enough to erase the lead Gingrich has over Romney,” said Clemson University political scientist Dave Woodard.

“Our head-to-head matchup of the candidates has consistently shown Mitt Romney competitive. The margin for Romney has evaporated this week, and we believe that Gingrich — who led our December poll with 38 percent to Romney’s 21 percent — will win the South Carolina primary,” he said.

Among poll respondents who had chosen or were leaning toward a candidate, this third Palmetto Poll showed Newt Gingrich (32 percent) leading the field over Mitt Romney (26 percent), up slightly from a month ago. Ron Paul came in third (11 percent), about even with his December poll rating. Rick Santorum remained in fourth place (9 percent), despite a significant jump over his ranking last month.

Andrew says Santorum’s low ranking suggests that Evangelicals in SC are breaking for Newt. Yep. Twenty percent of SC GOP voters remain undecided, but Newt’s got the momentum. Romney missed several opportunities to hit hard at Newt in last night’s debate, and Newt scored big with the base by attacking the media.

So, if Newt upsets Romney in SC, what does that do to Florida, where the next voting will take place, on January 31? Romney will have only one a single state, the extremely unrepresentative (for Republicans) New Hampshire, in his home region. He will have lost Iowa, and lost South Carolina. Once Romney gets the stink of loser on him, it’s going to be hard to scrub off.

Advertisement

Comments

Want to join the conversation?

Subscribe for as little as $5/mo to start commenting on Rod’s blog.

Join Now