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Every Picture Tells A Story

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Via @streeterryan [2]

Note this too, from Nate Silver, repeat, Nate Silver:

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36 Comments To "Every Picture Tells A Story"

#1 Comment By Michelle On July 22, 2016 @ 11:56 pm

Heaven help us. If ISIS could pick out president, it would certainly be Trump.

#2 Comment By Eamus Catuli On July 23, 2016 @ 12:41 am

It’s gonna come down to the electric dynamism of Tim Kaine versus the sheer “wow factor” of Mike Pence.

#3 Comment By Frank On July 23, 2016 @ 12:52 am

Actually, Obama has a point. And feeding into this fear Rod is emoting, not reasoning. Emoting got us into the Iraq War…

#4 Comment By Chris 1 On July 23, 2016 @ 1:10 am

One disconnected male.

One. Who committed suicide after he’d gotten away.

There’s a least common denominator in all this carnage, and it’s not BLM or ISIS.

#5 Comment By Charles Cosimano On July 23, 2016 @ 1:27 am

Even Nate Silver is seeing reality.

#6 Comment By Red Hats Rising On July 23, 2016 @ 1:37 am

The gall of an American Presidential candidate actually promoting American nationalism in America, to Americans, at an American political convention; how dare Donald Trump not appease the perpetual victim class with empty platitudes about “equality” and “privilege” while promising to further strip-mine the economy and demographic potential of the country to enrich global, supra-national interests.

Imagine an army of red hats who relish the thought of a fight–young, middle aged, even the spry older types who still work with their hands or have been cheated by the VA or have watched their children’s prospects disintegrate under the pressure of relentless globalization and Marxist scheming at the highest levels of government and culture.

Those people are raring to go and ready for action and Trump’s message, along with his charisma and optimism, has given them the energy and vigor that the Marxist schemers were so sure they’d successfully drained from the American people

The globalists and their lap dogs are so used to committing their crimes unopposed that the idea of a real push-back truly scares them; they’re weak and defenseless against combat-hardened vets, cops, and an assortment of blue collar bruisers who are looking forward to reclaiming their place in the country their ancestors built for them–to say nothing for us many tech savvy reactionaries who can wreak havoc for the Establishment in countless other ways and are more than ready to do so.

My message to my fellow Trump supporters is this: Our enemies are soft and untested and Trump has pulled back the curtain to show not an invincible foe, but terrified, low-T noodle-armed hipsters screeching YOU CAN’T DO THIS, IT HURTS, I’M SCARED, PLEASE STOP.

Have a clue, anti-Trumpers: we can do this and we’re going to do it; we’re glad you’re afraid, we’re excited to be part of something that makes you afraid, we’re happy your feelings are hurt, we’re looking forward to hurting them further, and we’re coming for you…

Trump as you may not have noticed wore a black suit, red tie and white shirt when he gave his acceptance speech. He draped himself in the black, red and white color scheme with the whole world watching.

#7 Comment By bayesian On July 23, 2016 @ 2:54 am

Why is it so surprising that Nate Silver would point out what he believes the current (e.g. polling based) reality to be? Yeah, he was initially as skeptical of Trump as pretty much all the rest of the punditocracy (maybe a little more so?), but he’s visibly (and publicly) trying to learn from his mistakes and (re-)gain some extra epistemic humility. A good role model for all of us in that regard 🙂

The greatest sin is confusing what we want to be true with what is true.

#8 Comment By Mapache On July 23, 2016 @ 5:34 am

ISIS would pick Trump as our next president? I doubt it. ISIS seems to have done well with Obama in office and likely would do well with Hillary in office, essentially a third Obama term.

#9 Comment By MH – Secular Misanthropist On July 23, 2016 @ 6:53 am

What I am wondering is when are the Germans going to give Angela Merkel the heave ho. The axe attack, the Munich shooting, the Cologne sexual assaults. It’s not looking good for her leadership.

As for Trump, yes his odds are much better lately. Honestly the Democrats were unwise to pick Hillary.

#10 Comment By dan On July 23, 2016 @ 7:31 am

“Michelle says:
July 22, 2016 at 11:56 pm
Heaven help us. If ISIS could pick out president, it would certainly be Trump.”

Or maybe a 3rd Obama term.

#11 Comment By Elijah On July 23, 2016 @ 7:33 am

“If ISIS could pick out president, it would certainly be Trump.”

I doubt it. They already know Hillary won’t do anything. And then she’ll deny knowing (or not knowing) about it afterwards.

#12 Comment By Chase On July 23, 2016 @ 8:11 am

It’s not going to be close. What could possibly happen between now and November in the world that would help HRC? Outside of 10,000,000 jobs being added in the next month or two, I literally can’t think of anything.

#13 Comment By Uncle Billy On July 23, 2016 @ 8:19 am

I don’t know if Trump would be more effective than Hillary Clinton in dealing with ISIS, but if the public perception is that he would, then every terrorist attack will result in more votes for Trump. If, God forbid, ISIS manages to pull off a major attack within the United States in say, October, it could help Trump. I hope that does not happen, but it could.

#14 Comment By JLF On July 23, 2016 @ 8:29 am

Trump says Obama and Clinton have been the weakest leaders in our country’s history. Yet somehow Obama and Clinton are strong enough to be responsible for an attack on a Berlin mall? And it gets even better when you consider how long Clinton has been out of office. (I’m pretty sure he means she must be working through the Clinton Foundation, that unaccountable, international crime family.) Who believes this stuff?

Yet Nate Silver has a point. Even with all the absurdly negative publicity and stories surrounding the Trump candidacy (while the most common adjective to describe the Tim Kaine VP candidacy is boring) you wouldn’t expect the polls to even be close. Silver’s argument is Americans are frightened, and fear seeks strength. But I’ve yet to understand how Trump stands for strength. At best he is a loud mouthed bully, threatening to do things any rational person knows he has no ability or intention to do, but there it is. Democracy is supposed to give you the government you want . . .

#15 Comment By Bernie On July 23, 2016 @ 8:41 am

A CNN poll taken right after Trump’s acceptance speech showed that 73% had a favorable opinion of it. CNN was shocked.

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The European and American landscapes will bring out many voters’ instinct for stability and peace. Merkel of Germany will, I predict, be forced to change her immigration policy, especially concerning Middle East immigrants. “Law and order”, like it or not, will be a top issue in the election. I’m watching three police officers’ funerals take place right now in near-by Baton Rouge.

#16 Comment By JonF On July 23, 2016 @ 8:42 am

Silver’s point, which was made at greater length on 538 is that there have been elections where one candidate was trailing by as much Trump is during July, but that candidate went on to win. The examples cited for this however involve something different from this election: the trailing candidate was an incumbent: Bush 43 in 2004 and Bush 41 in 1988 (he was incumbent as VP). The choice offered was Something Different vs More of the Same, and after flirting with Different voters went with Same. This year neither candidate is an incumbent, but Trump, more so than Clinton, is the Something Different candidate

#17 Comment By mrscracker On July 23, 2016 @ 8:52 am

I’m not so much worried about Donald Trump, I’m going to vote for him I guess. I’m worried about some of the folks who are trying to cash in on the current unrest.
I saw David Duke had entered the Louisiana Senate race.

[NFR: I think having Duke on the ballot here is a BIG boost for Hillary. It will raise black voter turnout to huge levels. The frightening thing is that with our open primary system, the top two vote-getters make it to the runoff, regardless of party. With 24 people in this Senate race, Duke has a good chance of making it into the runoff, based on the white racist vote alone. He wouldn’t win, ultimately, because every black voter and many, probably most, white voters would go for his opponent, no matter who he or she is. Still, more shame and infamy on our state. — RD]

#18 Comment By Tony D. On July 23, 2016 @ 9:30 am

Mr. Silver certainly leans (what passes these days for) left in his personal views, but I have no reason to consider him anything but an honest and scrupulous interpreter of raw data.

#19 Comment By steve On July 23, 2016 @ 9:39 am

I think Silver is correct. While Trump is the worst presidential candidate in modern history, Clinton is the second worst, and she is an awful campaigner. Trump is also helped immensely by the years the movement conservatives have spent breeding distrust in anything except for talk radio, Fox News and a few other sources of news. Trump has consistently found to either be lying or just making stuff up at record levels compared with any other presidential candidate. It doesn’t matter because conservatives now only read and believe their own sources who are not going to fact check their own candidate.

Steve

#20 Comment By Charlieford On July 23, 2016 @ 9:46 am

The story that picture tells is indeed a telling one: It was one “gunman” (as it almost always is, contrary to the usual initial inflations by the media)–if we can call an 18 year-old a “man.” The kid had been under psychiatric care and had no ties to ISIS that anyone’s found.

And Obama’s comment holds. It’s a big world with a lot of problems–always has been–but anyone who thinks the president of the US will be able to determine the behavior of teenage Bavarians is seriously delusional. Anyone who has a public platform and is insinuating that he might is truly hurting America.

#21 Comment By Tony D. On July 23, 2016 @ 11:16 am

I had a thought this morning (no, it didn’t hurt 🙂 )…In a typical presidential election, something like 40 to 50 percent of eligible voters do not bother to vote. What if Trump is aiming at those Americans? That would explain why those of us who do vote are not impressed by his campaign so far. If Trump can get even a third of those folks to show up and vote for him, while the rest of us do what we usually do, he wins in a landslide.

#22 Comment By Dasein On July 23, 2016 @ 11:27 am

An uncharacteristically hysterical comment by Silver. Trump is losing in all but one national poll. He’s also losing in every single important swing state.

To suggest that yet another shooting will do anything to shift this trend is risible.

#23 Comment By Johan On July 23, 2016 @ 11:37 am

Trump should use this picture in his campaign advertising. H. Clinton reminds me of Angela Merkel.

#24 Comment By Richard Parker On July 23, 2016 @ 12:01 pm

“Have a clue, anti-Trumpers: we can do this and we’re going to do it”

You are only going to do this if…Trump organizes a massive battleground states on the ground get out the vote effort.

I don’t think he is capable of this.

#25 Comment By Noah172 On July 23, 2016 @ 12:03 pm

Rod wrote:

I think having Duke on the ballot here is a BIG boost for Hillary. It will raise black voter turnout to huge levels

How was black turnout in the 1991 open primary (not the runoff, I mean)? Edwards, the favorite of blacks, and the only serious Democrat that year, got 34% and 523k votes — significantly less than the combined votes for Democratic candidates in the open primaries of 1987 and 1995. Edwards’ score in the 1991 open primary was not impressively higher than what he garnered in 1987, without the drama of a Klucker as an opponent.

If Duke is showing well in the polls, you may be right, but if it is clear before election day that he has no chance at second place than it will be tough to bestir the blacks.

With 24 people in this Senate race, Duke has a good chance of making it into the runoff, based on the white racist vote alone

Remember the last time Duke ran for office? No, not the governor’s race of 1991. It was a special election for Congress in 1999 in the 1st District (Nola burbs; Bob Livingston had resigned). Duke came in third, with 19% (2nd place got high 20s IIRC). Now, 17 years have passed, and 25 since his famous battle with Edwards. Some portion of his 90s fan base is dead. The Nola burbs were where Duke had been known the longest (having represented the area in the legislature before his runs for higher office), and yet he came up very short in a low-turnout contest.

tl;dr Duke is unlikely to generate higher black participation in the open primary (runoff is different), and unlikely to make the runoff.

#26 Comment By MikeCA On July 23, 2016 @ 12:22 pm

Red Hats Rising is a perfect illustration of the median Trump voter. They’re angry,fearful & want to lash out at those they think are responsible for their woes. He/she likes to offend people,intimidate them and threaten them. As Trump might say “SAD!!!”.
Red Hats reveals the hatred Trump & his ilk have unleashed and what we have to look forward to if Cheeto Jesus (Rod’s pal Erick Erickson’s choice of moniker for Donald,not mine) is elected. Yes, Red Hats & his compatriots are frightening but they can sod off, most of us aren’t falling for their fear mongering.

#27 Comment By Oliver Ironside On July 23, 2016 @ 12:47 pm

My message to my fellow Trump supporters is this: Our enemies are soft and untested and Trump has pulled back the curtain to show not an invincible foe, but terrified, low-T noodle-armed hipsters screeching YOU CAN’T DO THIS, IT HURTS, I’M SCARED, PLEASE STOP.

Indeed, my friend. The fire rises.

#28 Comment By JonF On July 23, 2016 @ 1:11 pm

If Duke is the GOP candidate I don’t doubt a lot of black people– and also some white people– will turn out to vote against him. But enough to give Hillary Louisiana? I don’t think so. Though of course the Democratic candidate will win the Senate seat against Duke as even many solid Republicans would refuse to vote for Duke.

#29 Comment By JonF On July 23, 2016 @ 1:14 pm

As for Silver, do let’s note that he’s saying, It’s not over till its over. Trump could win. Which is just the plain truth.
However if the polls are still looking like this in three months then that possibility will be fairly mythical. But right now it’s too early to say.

#30 Comment By Anne On July 23, 2016 @ 1:24 pm

Even voters voting out of fear alone could go either way depending, really, on what they think of Trump. Hillary, they know, and she stays on point. Trump’s the wild card, and prone to showcase his own instability.

#31 Comment By Oliver Ironside On July 23, 2016 @ 3:05 pm

If you look at the polls right now at real clear politics, the polls that are screening registered voters are showing a Hillary Clinton lead. The polls that are screening likely voters (and there are only two) are not.

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In any event, let’s get next week’s convention out of the way, and then see how things look, before we start using the polls to reinforce our convictions one way or the other.

#32 Comment By The other Eric On July 23, 2016 @ 6:36 pm

I don’t see it. The numbers tell a story that Trump has a decent shot with both around 40%. But 40% is Hillary’s bottom and Trump’s top. A great many Republicans are truly disgusted with Trump. A lot of Democrats don’t like Hillary, but they don’t detest her. It is possible I am channeling Romney but I don’t think so. If Trump is within striking range as the election nears, even Fox will come out against him.

#33 Comment By dan On July 23, 2016 @ 8:02 pm

Chris 1 says:

“One disconnected male.

One. Who committed suicide after he’d gotten away.

There’s a least common denominator in all this carnage, and it’s not BLM or ISIS”.

You aren’t thinking about this clearly. Blaming this on “disconnected men” is like blaming the financial crisis on “greed”. There will always be disconnected men and there will always be greed. It takes something to weaponize those things, whether that be ideology or idiotic policy. Why are so many of our disconnected young men finding a voice in radical Islam and identity politics?

You are viewing it much too myopically, and juridically and missing the point.

#34 Comment By JonF On July 24, 2016 @ 6:30 pm

The latest word on the investigation is that the guy, an 18 year old who had been much bullied in school, seemed to have no political agenda, at least nothing revealed in a journal he left behind. He appears to have had more in common with Eric Harris and Dylan Klebold than with Mohammed Atta.

#35 Comment By Chris 1 On July 25, 2016 @ 1:01 am

Why are so many of our disconnected young men finding a voice in radical Islam and identity politics?

Srysly? Have you checked the news?

#36 Comment By Siarlys Jenkins On July 26, 2016 @ 9:08 pm

Why are so many of our disconnected young men finding a voice in radical Islam and identity politics?

Because its there.

He appears to have had more in common with Eric Harris and Dylan Klebold than with Mohammed Atta.

If they were planning their killing this year, they too might have declared allegiance to the Islamic State, rather than dressed up as Goths.

If Nate Silver says its a close election and still in play, then it probably is. Silver called the Republican sweep of 2010 with arithmetic precision. I didn’t like the result, but it happened, and Silver called it. There were some commenting in this very space who denied that in 2012, because they wanted to feed their delusion that he didn’t know what he was talking about when he called an unambiguous Obama win over Romney, but he got that right too.

Silver hasn’t called it for Trump. He’s called it close, and Trump could win.

If Trump wins, I am going to feel a bit like I did when Scott Walker and his minions triumphed in 2010. I have no use for any of them, but, the Democrats who lost, by and large, richly deserved to lose. Walker ran a bland campaign as a fresh young face (nothing about crushing unions or slashing school budgets), and the Dems ran the oldest, familiar, big city political insider candidate they had. Guess, what, Walker won. As for the legislature, the top leadership were either cowards about passing substantive legislation until after the election, lest voters might not approve, or, they were literally in bed with PayDay Loan lobbyists. Not that there was anything good to say about the Republicans — the best news that year was a Democrat who challenged an incumbent Democrat in the primary and won. (The rejected incumbent got a job in Scott Walker’s administration). Hopefully Debbie Wasserman-Schultz faces a similarly successful challenge. (Would Trump hire her? Interesting question.)