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Will America Follow Europe Into Dissolution?

On Jan. 1, 2002, the day that euro coins and banknotes entered into circulation, my column, “Say Goodbye to the Mother Continent,” contained this pessimistic prognosis:

This European superstate will not endure, but break apart on the barrier reef of nationalism. For when the hard times come, patriots will recapture control of their national destinies from Brussels bureaucrats to whom no one will ever give loyalty or love.

The column described what was already happening.

Europe is dying. There is not a single nation in all of Europe with a birth rate sufficient to keep its population alive, except Muslim Albania. In 17 European nations, there are already more burials than births, more coffins than cradles.

Between 2000 and 2050, Asia, Africa and Latin America will add 3 billion to 4 billion people — 30 to 40 new Mexicos! — as Europe loses the equal of the entire population of Belgium, Holland, Denmark, Norway, Sweden and Germany.

By 2050, the median age in Europe will be 50, nine years older than the oldest nation on earth today, Japan. One in 10 Europeans will be over 80. And who will take care of these scores of millions of elderly, before the Dutch doctors arrive at the nursing home?

Immigrants is the answer, immigrants already pouring into Europe in the hundreds of thousands annually from the Middle East and Africa, changing the character of the Old Continent. Just as Europe once invaded and colonized Asia, Africa and the Near East, the once-subject peoples are coming to colonize the mother countries. And as the Christian churches of Europe empty out, the mosques are going up.

Yet, even as great nations like France, Germany, Italy and Spain grow weary of the strain of staying independent, sovereign and free, the sub-nations within are struggling to be born again. In Scotland, Wales, Ulster, Corsica, the Basque country and northern Italy are secessionist movements not unlike those that broke up Czechoslovakia, Yugoslavia and the Soviet Union into [24] independent nations.

What was predicted, 14 years ago, has come to pass.

Migrants into Germany from the Middle and Near East reached 1 million in 2015. EU bribes to the Turks to keep Muslim migrants from crossing over to the Greek islands, thence into the Balkans and Central Europe, are unlikely to stop the flood.

My prediction that European “patriots will recapture control of their national destinies,” looks even more probable today.

Prime Minister David Cameron, who almost lost a referendum on Scottish secession, is demanding a return of British sovereignty from the EU sufficient to satisfy his countrymen, who have been promised a vote on whether to abandon the European Union altogether.

Marine Le Pen’s anti-EU National Front ran first in the first round of the 2015 French elections. Many Europeans believe she will make it into the final round of the next presidential election in 2017. Anti-immigrant, right-wing parties are making strides all across Europe, as the EU is bedeviled by a host of crises.

Europe’s open borders that facilitate free trade also assure freedom of travel to homegrown terrorists. Mass migration into the EU is causing member nations to put up checkpoints and close borders. The Schengen Agreement on the free movement of goods and people is being ignored or openly violated.

The economic and cultural clash between a rich northern Europe and a less affluent south—Greece, Italy, Spain, Portugal—manifest in the bad blood between Athens and Berlin, endures. Northern Europeans grow weary of repeated bailouts of a south that chafes at constant northern demands for greater austerity.

Then there is the surge of sub-nationalism, as in Scotland, Catalonia, Flanders, and Veneto, where peoples seek to disconnect from distant capitals that no longer speak for them, and reconnect with languages, traditions and cultures that give more meaning to their lives than the economics-uber-alles ideology of Frau Angela Merkel.

Moreover, the migrants entering Europe, predominantly Islamic and Third World, are not assimilating as did the European and largely Christian immigrants to America of a century ago. The enclaves of Asians in Britain, Africans and Arabs around Paris, and Turks in and around Berlin seem to be British, French, and German in name only. And some of their children are now heeding the call to jihad against the Crusaders invading Muslim lands.

The movement toward deeper European integration appears to have halted, and gone into reverse, as the EU seems to be unraveling along ideological, national, tribal and historic lines. If these trends continue, and they seem to have accelerated in 2015, the idea of a United States of Europe dies, and with it the EU.

And this raises a question about the most successful economic and political union in history—the USA. How does an increasingly multiracial, multiethnic, multilingual, multicultural United States avoid the fate to which Europe appears to be headed, when there is no identifiable racial or ethnic majority here in 2042?

Are our own political and racial divisions disappearing, or do they, too, seem to be deepening?

Patrick J. Buchanan is the author of The Greatest Comeback: How Richard Nixon Rose From Defeat to Create the New Majority. [1] Copyright 2015 Creators.com.

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25 Comments To "Will America Follow Europe Into Dissolution?"

#1 Comment By seydlitz89 On December 29, 2015 @ 6:10 am

The EU never was much beyond a currency union. What holds Europe together is a common outlook and similar cultural attitudes and values, but it is in its diversity that Europe shows it resilience. A Frenchman is never going to be a Spaniard, or a German, or a Dane. The north of Italy has always been a very different place from the south of Italy, hey the north of Portugal, where I live, is quite different from Lisbon and also something quite different from the Algarve.

Refugees have been coming to Europe for a long time as well. I wouldn’t be surprised if in the future there are large numbers fleeing the chaos of the former USA once the last Cheneyite grand swindle collapses . . . and they will be welcome because Europe offers and will continue to offer the most humane and liveable alternative to this dissolving social order of casino capitalism, the decadent and arrogant blindness of our political elites, environmental degradation and pauperization of the planet.

The main source of our crisis in the West, what makes it impossible for us to deal effectively with the massive and complex problems we face, is the political dysfunctions of the US hegemon. The effects of these radiate out to Europe who are all essentially political vassals of the US and have been for generations. The French were the last hold outs, but they too have come around. As long as the US political and financial elite acted responsibly, this was not so much of a problem but this elite has become reckless and deluded, have mistaken their own narrow corrupt interests with not only those of the American people, but with those of the peoples of Europe and other subordinate powers as well. The arrogant delusions of this corrupt elite have allowed them to become the tools of other interested powers who now (ab)use US military power and European compliance to further their own aims, which are incompatible, actually contrary to, the interests of the peoples of the West.

The proof of this state of affairs, if anyone requires more proof, is that NATO has come close to a shooting war with Russia twice in the last year . . .

Furthermore, if Europe has no future neither does humanity me thinks . . .

#2 Comment By Colorado Jack On December 29, 2015 @ 9:33 am

“Europe is dying. There is not a single nation in all of Europe with a birth rate sufficient to keep its population alive, except Muslim Albania.”

Not true. According to the CIA World Factbook, France’s fertility rate is 2.08, approximately equal to replacement rate.

#3 Comment By collin On December 29, 2015 @ 10:46 am

Your thoughts echo Ross Douthat’s thoughts on cracks in the liberal order but most of the evidence is small and limited. While your point on the aging of Europe is important, the birth rates in East Asia countries are even lower and aging is more of a problem. And for the US and Mexico, the number of immigrants is less than in 2008 and the more successful Latin/South America (Brazil, Chile & Mexico) nations also have shrinking birth rates.

For all the talk of Europe breaking apart, the Euro survived the Financial Crisis so I expect the nations will continue integrating.

#4 Comment By Fred Bowman On December 29, 2015 @ 10:52 am

The only way that America (or what’s left of it) is to be saved is that individual states and regions break away and form their own republics. And when it’s all said and done, and the imperialist United States of America is no more, this is likely to be what happens. I’m believing it’s not a matter of “if” but “when”.

#5 Comment By Montana Marvin On December 29, 2015 @ 11:39 am

I think it is past time to ask who are the people that want to dissolve the populations of the world into a disarrayed mutt un-culture. Who are these people, and what is their agenda? And, in the name of national and cultural sovereignty everywhere, what can be done to stop them, their propaganda, and their wave of destruction?

#6 Comment By bt On December 29, 2015 @ 12:07 pm

Well, it is an unusual situation isn’t it?

One of Europe’s enduring problems from my view is the fact that they have NOT been able to deal with immigrants, due to their enduring nationalistic habits. An acquaintance of mine came from a small village in Hungary. There was a family down the (dirt) road that everyone called “The Germans”. They had been living in that village for over 100 years. It’s easy to see how a mentality like that could make it easy to send the jews off on the cattle cars.

It’s not just Europe. Japan is also dealing with a low birth rate, and they are also famously unwilling to allow foreigners to become Japanese. Even China is starting to worry that they won’t be able to get the birth rate back up.

America’s population is increasing; that IS partly due to immigration – And this is an asset, not a liability. It’s one of the reason’s America is out-growing Europe (and Japan). Old people have this funny habit of not buying or doing anything.

We should be flattered that motivated, ambitious people want to become Americans. The best path for America is to allow immigration and to make sure that the newcomers are made welcome, get a decent education, and can assimilate and contribute. I’m looking at you Donald.

#7 Comment By Kurt Gayle On December 29, 2015 @ 1:46 pm

@ Colorado Jack:

Just to be accurate: The CIA Factbook gives the “Total Fertility Rate” of France (2.08, 2014 est.), based on a slightly different formula than the “Fertility Rate” of France which is 2.01. But you make a good point:

“With 2.01 children per woman, France has one of the highest fertility rates in Europe, ranking just behind Ireland. France therefore stands out from the rest of the EU, where the average fertility rate is approximately 1.6 children per woman (notably as a result of the low fertility rates in southern and eastern European countries).

“In France, having children isn’t just dependent on the economic situation: ‘Many of the babies born in 2010 were conceived in 2009, during the economic crisis,’ underscores Pascale Breuil, head of INSEE’s Demographic Department. In France, fulfillment is primarily dependent on having a rewarding family and social life. Indeed, almost 60% of young French people want to start a family and raise children; this is the highest rate in Europe according to a study carried out in 2011 by the Foundation for Political Innovation…The family policy helps to explain this ‘French exception.’

“France was the first country to introduce an active family support policy characterized by:

• The payment of family benefits (housing benefit, family allowance, early childhood benefit)

• The introduction of specific forms of leave (maternity leave, paternity leave),

• Tax allowances (quotient familial (number of people in the family)) or specific benefits (cartes famille nombreuses(large family card), retirement benefits, etc.)

• Child care facilities available from a very young age”


When the National Front comes to power in France and halts nearly all immigration, these French family support polices will be key components in maintaining a strong French work force with strong French economic growth.

#8 Comment By Rurik On December 29, 2015 @ 2:18 pm

Complain about immigration all you want, but this country, by its very design, is set up for people from other countries and cultures to come here and, whether gradually or not, change and expand our demographic makeup.

#9 Comment By David Naas On December 29, 2015 @ 2:53 pm

The trauma of Europe over World War II was sufficiently deep to cause all sort of unhinged reaction. including the attempt to establish the United States of Europe. No surprise the younger generation which know not Adolf, is stirring and grumbling under constraints their elders accept as a necessary evil.

As for the US, my G-g-g-grandpa died to preserve the Union, and neo-Confederate talk is not acceptable in my home.

Just sayin’, as the saying goes.

#10 Comment By bacon On December 29, 2015 @ 2:58 pm

A nice call on probable effects of differential population growth rates between developed and undeveloped countries in Mr. Buchanan’s article of 2002, but churlish of him not to have mentioned the Reverend Malthus, who made pretty much the same argument in 1798. Malthus’ timing was a bit off and his thesis simplified compared to the several inputs to the evolving population problem, but the outcome looks to be the same.

#11 Comment By Michael On December 29, 2015 @ 3:02 pm

Unfortunately, you can’t have your cake and eat it too. As you well note, “Europe is dying. There is not a single nation in all of Europe with a birth rate sufficient to keep its population alive, except Muslim Albania. In 17 European nations, there are already more burials than births, more coffins than cradles”

So, either Europe tolerates immigration from Muslim lands to ensure that the birth rates remain high enough or Europe reduces the cost of raising children (which is why the birth rate dropped). The latter means that governments have to spend more and the private sector has to agree to take less profit (child care, college, medical care, etc.). Good luck with that!!!

#12 Comment By KD On December 29, 2015 @ 3:10 pm

Colorado Jack writes:

“Not true. According to the CIA World Factbook, France’s fertility rate is 2.08, approximately equal to replacement rate.”

No, true at the time of the prophesy (2002)–France has a tfr of 1.89 in 2000 (which would have been the vital statistic available at the time).


But you can note a general trend upward in fertility in EU countries between 2000 and 2015. Why do you think that is happening?

#13 Comment By Myron Hudson On December 29, 2015 @ 3:11 pm

From where I sit it looks like the fear and divisiveness is a product of nationalism, not a problem to be solved by nationalism.

Also I agree with seydlitz89 that a large part of current world dysfunction results from the invasive and destabilizing actions of the world’s most powerful Empire. Were it otherwise, Cheney et al would have fixed everything for us by now. We keep breaking eggs, but the omelettes are turning out to be a mess.

#14 Comment By Dr. Diprospan On December 29, 2015 @ 3:37 pm

Mr. Buchanan, I share your anxious thoughts for years.
But let’s sum up: what we have? The last billion years, the planet lives in cycles of 100,000 years in which the glacial period lasts 80 thousand years and then is replaced by a warm period of 20 – 25 thousand years. Apparently the current warm period ends. Bright light may erupt before lightbulb burns out. Similarly, the current warming is likely only the beginning of the next Ice Age. Laurentian, Scandinavian, Kolyma glaciers may soon return to their usual places.
Comfortable living in the temperate zone would be impossible.
Now, let’s not forget the instincts developed by living organisms in the north.
Cooling and lack of light in autumn and winter causes deciduous trees shed their leaves and sleep until spring. Animals also hibernate or migrate to warmer regions.
In this sense, European no different from a bird or maple tree. After all Europeans – Great nomads that incorporated ancient survival instinct.
If the time to go soon, you better move in small compact group, but not a huge country with a billion people. European languages belong to the Indo-European group of languages derived from Sanskrit. India – birthplace of the ancient Europeans.
If the Ice Age begins, the Europeans may instinctively want to return to India, but before that they will return to Mesopotamia, because it opens the way to India.
As for me, I discovered for myself the AC in the past year. Great magazine.
Wise, balanced, friendly, constantly in search of the truth, conservative, in a good sense.
I wish the editorial board, authors of articles in the new year
health, good luck, further successful promotion of conservative values in the United States and around the world.

#15 Comment By Kurt Gayle On December 29, 2015 @ 4:34 pm

@ KD, who wrote:

“But you can note a general trend upward in fertility in EU countries between 2000 and 2015. Why do you think that is happening?”

Part of the reason for the rising EU birth rate during some of these years has to do with the higher birthrate of most non-EU immigrants. This includes the increase of Muslim immigration into the EU and the higher fertility rates for Muslims compared with non-Muslims.

For example, in the 2000-2005 period the total fertility rate of Muslims in all EU countries listed below was higher than the total fertility rate of non-Muslims. (Note: Albania, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Georgia, Kosovo, Montenegro, Macedonia, Serbia, and Ukraine are not EU members.)


#16 Comment By Bob K. On December 30, 2015 @ 3:25 am

To quote Denis Petrov in his article, “Putin, Planes and Position” in “Chronicles” on 12/11/2015:

“The West’s real war is ideological and metaphysical in nature, pitting currently scarce common sense, patriotism, and recognition of natural law against leftist utopianism and nihilism. Suicidal ideological rot runs deep, evidenced by the decline in Christian belief, collapsing birthrates, the erasure by redefinition of our understanding of marriage, the apparent intentions of “Eurocrats” to continue to accept “refugees,” and postmodernism’s denial of objective truth. There are signs of populist revolts in Europe and the United States, but nothing short of a Christian revival can truly secure any populist victory.”

#17 Comment By Colorado Jack On December 30, 2015 @ 11:08 am

@Kurt Gayle

Your points are well taken. Good to talk with people who care about getting the facts right.

Note that the 1.6 rate you mention for countries other than France include some countries such as Germany and the Netherlands with Muslim populations at around 5%, less than France but still significant. Even after allowing for a higher Muslim birth rate, there still seems to be a real difference between France and most other European countries.

#18 Comment By NJguy On December 30, 2015 @ 1:48 pm

I think sooner or later one of the “populist” parties will become dominate in some European country, the thing I wonder is if that might create a domino effect in other parts of the continent.

If I had to choose one country that might predict just what might happen in the next few decades in terms of immigration/ethnic conflict in Europe I’d have to go with France. Just how are they going to cope with both the ever expanding Arab/African population and Front National?

#19 Comment By c matt On December 30, 2015 @ 2:34 pm

But what comprises that 2.08 (or 2.01)? Is that French heritage or recent immigrant? Is the most popular boy’s name Pierre or Mohammed?

#20 Comment By EliteCommInc. On December 30, 2015 @ 3:51 pm

But in direct response to the article ——

I do not think that the circumstances in Europe are inevitable for them of for the US.

#21 Comment By Emilio On December 30, 2015 @ 9:10 pm

Deracination is a natural process, and can be quite enjoyable when in the right company. Just ask any happily married (or just happily together) interracial couple with children what it’s like to be the very tip of the spear.

#22 Comment By concerned cynic On December 31, 2015 @ 1:52 pm

Most or all of France’s relatively high birthrate is due to France being 10% Muslim.
I agree that much of Europe is demographically doomed, and that European culture will be preserved to some degree only thanks to the four adult children of Mother England: Australia/Canada/New Zealand/USA.

I see no reason why the fissiparous tendencies that broke up the USSR and Yugoslavia will not afflict other large nations. I can easily imagine Canada breaking up as follows: Ontario and Quebec each become nations. Canada west of Kenora becomes a third nation. The Maritimes join the USA, because no one else wants them.

The USA could easily and sensibly break up as follows: (1) The Pacific coast, Nevada, Alaska and Hawaii, possibly Arizona and New Mexico as well. Liberal politics would bind this nation; (2) the Plains, Rocky Mountains and Southeast would form a nation devoted to free enterprise and traditional American values. Texas would be its economic heart; (3) the USA north and east of Kansas City. Again, the binding element would be liberal politics. People not happy with the values of the nation in which they find themselves would be free to resettle in a more congenial nation.

#23 Comment By the the On January 4, 2016 @ 10:50 am

If you want to see the future go to sub-Saharan Africa. They have had porous borders, multi-culturalism, multi-language, and multi-ethnic states for a long time. The continents relative lack of mountains and deep rivers means that people have been moving cross borders for longer there. Sub-saharan Africa has been living our future.

Its not a pretty future. But it appears to be unavoidable.

#24 Comment By georgina davenport On January 10, 2016 @ 7:06 pm

“How does an increasingly multiracial, multiethnic, multilingual, multicultural United States avoid the fate to which Europe appears to be headed, when there is no identifiable racial or ethnic majority here in 2042?”

“What” USA is disappearing? What Buchannan and people like him are lamenting is really the disappearing of the dominance of a white (Caucasion, non-Hispanic) majority because the assumption is USA is defined to be a European-based white country. Where in our constitution can we find this definition?

#25 Comment By Miriam On January 30, 2018 @ 9:54 pm

You’ve been slaughtering most of us for centuries!! Calling us Irish and others terrorists, banning the language, stealing from and impoverishing practically everyone. Our birthrates are a vote of confidence in whether we think it’s going to happen again or not and it’s not looking good is it?