TAC readers will find I like to write about Canadian politics from time to time because as someone who studies non-major party politics, I like to write about a place where there’s a five party system instead of a two-party system where such parties have influence and pull compared to the one and two percent we’re talking about for the LP or the CP and or Nader will receive in a few weeks. Plus, issues of culture, identity and even secession are serious issues instead of just stereotypes. It’s also nice to have an election that can be called at any time and last only 30 days instead of the continuing four-year cycle in the U.S.

Take for example the parlimentary election that took place yesterday (in case you weren’t paying attention). At the start, it looked as though that the Conservative Party of Canada was going to win a majority and put the Bloc Quebecois out of its misery by taking their seats in Quebec. Then Tory leader Stephen Harper decides that he’s going run a U.S.-style class/culture war campaign calling for tougher jail sentences that would put 14-year olds away for life and for cut in the arts and culture budget because “real” Canadians couldn’t relate to rich artists and their fancy gallery parties.

The cuts in the arts budget was paltry, $45 million out a $3 billion budget and such sentences for 14-year olds would only be for outrageous offenses. But it isn’t the rich that take advantage of such funds in Quebec, it’s local community groups and most Quebecois don’t believe youg kids should be put away for life. They saw the Tories moves as insults to their culture and the Tories poll numbers in Quebec tanked. The Bloc lived to fight another day, gaining 50 seats and 38 percent of the vote.  Such moves along with a bumbling campaign that emphazied Harper himself instead of the Quebecois the party was promoting as candidates were also reason for the Tories failure to expand upon their 10 seats in the province.

At least, however, they didn’t lose ground in Quebec and perhaps there was method in the Tories apparent madness. At the same time they didn’t gain ground in Quebec, they gained 10 seats in Ontario, especially in the suburbs around Toronto, the population center of the country.  Right now, the CPC is only 12 seats from a majority in the House of Commons. No doubt helping them in Ontario was a concern about crime (crime rates have been rising in the country and there was the horrific beaheading of passneger on a Manitoba bus incident a few months back). Qubecois may not like putting away 14-year olds but perhaps Ontarians do.  And maybe Ontarians struggling in difficult economic times aren’t going to cry for artists losing public subsides while they’re worrying about losing their homes. Perhaps the Tories are sick of dealing with the Bloc and trying to gain seats in Quebec despite declaring Quebec a nation in Canada and showering the province with money. Perhaps they will now focus their intensity on gaining the seats in Ontario they need to win a majority, especially if they can use cultural/class warfare issues to  their advantage which reflects the Alberta base of the Tories where Harper is from.

All this shows how the Bloc has paralyized Canadian politics. This is now the third minority government in a row since 2004. If the Bloc can take Quebec 50 seats off the table, then that means the other parties have to gain 60 percent of the seats someplace else and be able to crack the 40% popular vote barrier which none of them show the capability of doing. While the Tories have their biggest numbers in the Commons since the Mulroney era, they are still short of the magic number 155 for a majority and may very well have hit a ceiling. If they don’t go the Quebec route for votes and try to mine Ontario, how long can they get away with being Republican-lite to attract those voters closest to the U.S., the place which may well be rejecting such politics in a few weeks? Especially when the party has more urban and female representation than ever before?

They won’t have a lot of time to ponder this question. The Liberals won’t be down for long once they sweep aside their lightweight and hapless leader Stephen Dion in their scheduled party convention this May. They can rest easy that the New Democratic Party, their foes on the left, didn’t emerge to become a long-term threat nor did the Greens make any inroads either. Leftist voters may very well switch back to the Grits to beat back the Tories if the Liberals can find a dynamic new leader. Although no one’s talking about her, Belinda Stronach seems to me the person they’re looking for in a leader instead of Bob Rae, Michael Ingnatieff, Ken Dryden or Pierre Trudeau’s son Justin, who was just elected to Parliment for the first time yesterday.

Decentralization is still a winning ticket for the Tories and had they had stayed on that path instead of playing culture war they would have had a majority with lots of new Quebec seats and a Bloc Quebecois on its way to oblivion. They should admit they screwed up and start again with Quebec otherwise Canadians may very well turn to the “natural governing party of Canada” to break the stalemate.