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Why Did So Many Conservatives Distrust the Polls?

Dylan Matthews of The Washington Post [1] and Daniel Foster of National [2]
Review [2] consider the question:

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#1 Comment By Joe the Plutocrat On November 15, 2012 @ 4:32 pm

because polls are often laden with facts/data; and as we know from our reading, facts/data are the cornerstone of SCIENCE. what’s next; “In Data We Trust” on our legal tender?

#2 Comment By EricfromCleveland On November 15, 2012 @ 4:44 pm

Yeah yeah republicans hate science whatever. The real reason is that Obama did what traditionally is impossible, win while losing everyone over 30. The kids, especially minority kids, showed up. Thats like expecting the Red Sox not to implode. Sure it could happen but we all know history.

Check out the link below about the post-mortem on polls. The first section is more generic but in the second part the author goes into details about who won what votes where.


#3 Comment By Joe the Plutocrat On November 15, 2012 @ 6:36 pm

@EricfromCleveland. it’s not so much that “republicans hate science” so much as one side apparently studied the data produced by polls (perhaps targeting “the kids, especially minority kids”), as opposed to ignoring the data and either “hope” (pun intended) their guy was going to win (George Will, Dick Morris, et al) by some act of god; and/or wondering aloud (and in private) WHY the polls did not reflect their “skewed” assessment of the race. and let’s not forget; the BoSox did not implode in 2004 and 2007.

#4 Comment By EricfromCleveland On November 15, 2012 @ 9:21 pm

Joe, it is simply not true that one side didn’t study the polls. One side didn’t believe the other could produce the turnout numbers they did. This was of course an incorrect assumtion that cost them the election, but it was not based in lack of study or ignorance. It is just very unlikely that youth would turn out like they did. I tip my cap to the dems gotv folks for it.

As the article said, polls are based on turn out models. If you didn’t believe youth turnout would be high you would have different poll results. Its not about hating science or not studying, it’s about assuming youth turnout wouldn’t increase because they are about the hardest voters to capture historically. Again this assumtion bit the GOP in the ass HARD. But its one that isn’t based inlack of respect for science of statistics.

And trust me I am still shocked, I still think those series wins will be stripped on a technicality!

#5 Comment By Fast Jimmy On November 15, 2012 @ 9:38 pm

That’s easy. The GOP wanted to believe that they would win in a landslide. Many were gloating that they would happily rub this in the faces of their liberal friends after the election.

This group loses less sleep every year troubling over reality and has access to plenty of alternate universes where people know the real score (unskewedpolls.com).