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GOP and Dems Agree: ‘We’re Gonna Win’

Ramesh Ponnuru and James Fallows are on the same page today. Ponnuru [1]:

If the liberals are right, then most of the Republican insiders I’ve talked to over the last two weeks are in the flat-earth camp. They don’t seem to be just pretending to have confidence in Romney’s ability to win the election, spinning the rubes to improve the party’s percentage in defeat; they seem to really have confidence: more confidence, in fact, than I remember roughly the same group of people having at this point in 2004. …

Democrats and the press generally seem confident they are going to win next week, too. I’ve never seen as big a divergence in expectations about a presidential election less than a week away.

And Fallows [2]:

[T]he evidence convinces me that, beyond the spin and the lunacy and the media’s interest in keeping any race “close,” a lot of Republicans really believe that Romney is about to win. …

[T]he up-versus-down difference on how things are trending and who holds the lead seems to be a case of the “separate fact universes” problem that affects other parts of our policy extending to our grasp of electoral reality. Some fraction of the population is going to have the “How can that be? No one I know… ” reaction on election day. … the perceptions of separate reality have reached a new level.

In an election about the outcome of which I will not hazard a prediction, this co-observation is the least surprising thing about this election cycle. What else should we expect when everything is now a front in the culture war — foreign policy [3]; the economy [4]; and of course all of the policy flashpoints that fell under the old rubric of culture war? Our metareaction to hurricanes [5] is culture war. The way we look evaluate polling data is culture war.

Maybe this comes down to the heat of a hard-fought race. But I tend to doubt it.

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#1 Comment By Duopoly Uber Alles On November 1, 2012 @ 5:33 pm

“GOP and Dems Agree: ‘We’re Gonna Win’”

… and they’re right, God help us. There is less real choice in this election than any in my lifetime.

#2 Comment By MBunge On November 1, 2012 @ 6:02 pm

“What else should we expect when everything is now a front in the culture war”

I think the significant thing is that this will be a moment where our political elites are allowing their culture war bias to directly affect their own self-interest. It’s one thing for a politician to deny climate change when that denial has no immediate effect on them or their political fortunes. It’s quite another to render yourself incapable of recognizing the most fundamental thing all politicians need to know, whether they’re up or down in the polls.

And let’s be clear. If Romney wins, liberals will be bitterly disappointed, angry and somewhat radicalized. But they’ll eventually resign themselves to Romney drawing the equivalent of an inside straight and not abandon reason. If Obama wins, we could see things from conservatives that we literally have not seen in our politics since before the Civil War.


#3 Comment By Bob Jones On November 1, 2012 @ 6:20 pm

Actually Scott it is quite simple.

If Obama wins, it will be because ACORN stuffed the ballot boxes, and we need to double down on election “reform” measures to ensure a fairer election next time. Oh and the Kenyan-born socialist muslin won;t be the legitimate President anyway

If Romney wins, it will be because of the systematic disenfranchisement of poor minority voters in an effort to create a new Jim Crow, or Poll Taxes, and it will mean that a new era of civil rights struggles and of course legislation will be needed to stop this rampant racism.

It would be funny, if it weren’t horribly sad what tribalism has done to our society.

#4 Comment By Cliff On November 1, 2012 @ 8:21 pm

Yeah, they’re gonna win, and we’re gonna lose, either way.

#5 Comment By One Fish Two Fish On November 2, 2012 @ 10:40 am

… red fish, blue fish.