We’ve worried recently about analyses showing the GOP could lose the House (and what the Democratic leadership would look like as a result).
Robert Dunham at the San Francisco Chronicle thinks a turnover is possible but unlikely:
Because of reapportionment and redistricting, more than three dozen incumbents (of both parties) are fighting for their political survival. Add to that the larger-than-normal number of retirements, which has given each party some good take-over opportunities. And some 20 Tea Party freshmen are trying to prove that their 2010 upset wins were not a once-in-a-political-lifetime aberration. Democrats must gain 25 seats to win a majority in the House of Representatives, and they’re hoping for a Mitt Romney meltdown that discourages GOP turnout. It’ll be tough. Democrats are competitive in some 40 Republican-held districts. But the GOP could stake claim to up to 35 seats currently held by Democrats.
He then lists the ten top competitive House races to watch.