Dan may not agree, but it seems to me that all three of us are in agreement: McCain isn’t going to lose moderate Republicans even though many moderate Republicans oppose the war, which means that Obama is unlikely to get all that many Republicans, or at least no more than previous Democratic nominees in recent cycles.  Earlier loose talk of 1980-style realignment by Obama boosters now appears to be seriously misguided.  I agree that those he does get will largely be liberals and moderates in the party. 

Also, on a related matter, none of us is claiming that these people are Rockefeller Republicans; this is a particularly silly thing to say, since Jim just went out of his way the other day to explain that the Rockefeller Republicans of the ’60s and 70s are not around anymore.